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Spain’s gambling regulator has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket and Kalshi, making it one of the latest countries to treat prediction markets as unlicensed gambling operations rather than financial innovation.
The Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ) published the orders on May 26 in Spain’s official state gazette, directing ISPs to restrict access to both platforms for a period of three to four months while investigations proceed. The regulator cited a familiar list of complaints: no proper licensing, inadequate identity verification, and insufficient protections for minors and self-excluded gamblers.
A $9.7 billion sector faces a shrinking map
Polymarket and Kalshi together processed more than $9.7 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days, commanding roughly 88% of all prediction market activity during that stretch. Kalshi alone accounted for approximately $5.9 billion of that total, with Polymarket handling around $3.8 billion.
Spain joins a growing roster of jurisdictions that have decided prediction markets look a lot more like betting shops than Bloomberg terminals. France moved first among European nations, restricting access in late 2024. Portugal and Hungary followed in early 2026. India and Indonesia have also taken action.
As of March 2026, Polymarket had documented more than 30 countries where its platform faces some form of access restriction or outright block.
The gambling-versus-finance debate
Spain’s DGOJ clearly falls in the gambling camp. The regulator’s complaints centered on consumer protection gaps, not on market manipulation or securities law violations. Spain isn’t saying these platforms are trading unregistered securities. Spain is saying they’re running unlicensed casinos.
Kalshi has tried harder than most to play within the US regulatory framework, securing approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to list certain event contracts. But even that hasn’t insulated it from trouble. The platform faces distinct regulatory hurdles at the state level in the US, including challenges in Nevada.
Polymarket surged to mainstream prominence during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, when its markets became a widely cited alternative to traditional polling.
What this means for investors
The immediate impact of Spain’s block is modest. Spain is not the largest market for either platform, and determined users can route around ISP-level blocks with VPNs. The three-to-four-month investigation window also suggests this could be temporary, at least in theory, if the platforms engage with Spanish regulators.
For the broader prediction market sector, the concentration risk is stark. Two platforms controlling 88% of sector volume means that regulatory pressure on just Polymarket and Kalshi can meaningfully affect liquidity across the entire space. If trading volumes decline because key markets become inaccessible, the accuracy of prediction market odds, their core value proposition, deteriorates too.