cryptobriefing.com
Spain’s gambling regulator just pulled the plug on the two biggest prediction markets in the world. The country’s Directorate General for the Regulation of Gambling, known as DGOJ, opened disciplinary proceedings against both Polymarket and Kalshi on May 26, ordering internet service providers to block access to the platforms.
The reason is straightforward: neither platform holds a license to offer betting products under Spanish law.
What Spain actually did
The DGOJ, operating under Spain’s Ministry of Consumer Affairs, flagged both Polymarket and Kalshi for a list of deficiencies that reads like a consumer protection checklist. No identity verification processes. No safeguards for minors. No protections for users who have self-excluded from gambling.
The ISP-level blocks are classified as a precautionary measure, expected to remain in place for three to four months while formal investigations continue.
The scale of what’s being blocked
Here’s the thing about blocking Polymarket and Kalshi: you’re not shutting out two niche startups. You’re cutting access to platforms that together handled nearly $9.7 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days alone.
That figure represents roughly 88% of the entire prediction market sector’s volume. Kalshi accounted for approximately $5.9 billion of that total, with Polymarket contributing around $3.8 billion.
Both platforms experienced explosive growth following the 2024 US presidential election cycle, which turned prediction markets from a crypto curiosity into a mainstream news source. Major outlets cited Polymarket odds throughout election night. Kalshi, which operates as a regulated exchange in the US under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, pushed aggressively into new event categories.
Spain isn’t alone
Spain’s crackdown fits into a pattern that’s been accelerating across multiple countries. Brazil enacted similar restrictions on April 24, 2026. Argentina moved against prediction platforms in March 2026. Ukraine blocked access back in January 2026.
The common thread across all these actions is licensing. Each country has concluded that prediction markets constitute gambling products that require local authorization. And neither Polymarket nor Kalshi has pursued that authorization in most of these jurisdictions.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated entity in the United States, but US regulatory approval doesn’t automatically translate to legal standing in Madrid, Brasilia, or Buenos Aires.
What this means for investors
For traders actively using Polymarket or Kalshi, the immediate risk is geographic. If you’re in Spain, your access window just closed for at least three to four months.
For the platforms themselves, the cascading restrictions pose a longer-term strategic problem. Prediction markets rely on liquidity, and liquidity relies on having a large, diverse user base. Every country that blocks access shrinks the pool of potential traders.
If Polymarket and Kalshi decide to pursue licensing in individual countries rather than accepting the blocks, they’re looking at a patchwork of regulatory requirements that could include identity verification systems, age gates, responsible gambling tools, and local entity establishment.