Bitcoin has dropped nearly 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in October to trade around $66,600, having climbed from a low of of $60,000 on Feb. 6.
Bitcoin sees historical realized losses. Source: CyptoQuant
Deep and slow bleed-out could follow
IT Tech said that previously, “extreme loss spikes like this triggered rebounds,” and noted that Bitcoin had briefly rallied above $70,000 on Tuesday, but added, “this could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out. Relief rallies happen even in prolonged bear markets.”
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CryptoQuant posted to X on Thursday that $55,000 marks Bitcoin’s realized price, which is “historically tied to bear market bottoms.”
“Past cycles saw $BTC trade 24% to 30% below this level before stabilizing,” it stated. “When $BTC reaches this area, it usually moves sideways before recovering.”
The bear market bottom would be below Bitcoin’s realized price (blue line). Source: CryptoQuant
More time to reach the bottom
Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the recent capitulation event “reflects intense short-term holder panic and washout amid broader macro pressures and a shift into bear market territory.”
“While this level of oversold conditions historically precedes recovery phases, reaching the full bottom may still require additional time and signals from metrics like sustained institutional buying or miner stabilization,” he added.
Ruck targeted potential support emerging in the $40,000 to $60,000 range, “depending on evolving market dynamics,” a figure in line with predictions from other analysts.
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