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Harvard Professor Who Predicted Bitcoin Crash to $100 Says Regulators Were Too Lax

source-logo  coindesk.com 21 August 2025 08:51, UTC
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In 2018, Kenneth S Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, predicted bitcoin

$BTC$113,821.00
was more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000 in a decade.

In reality, bitcoin's price rose above $100,000 this year, a 10-fold increase from March 2018's sub-$10,000 level when Rogoff predicted the crash.

On Tuesday, with bitcoin hovering around $113,000, Rogoff reflected on how he had missed the mark, saying he had been "far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses regarding sensible cryptocurrency regulation."

In a post on X, Harvard economist Ken Rogoff expressed said he'd expected policymakers to adopt a firm stance to curb the use of cryptocurrencies in tax evasion and illegal activities. He was, indirectly, criticizing the regulatory environment as being less than prudent and allowing cryptocurrencies like $BTC to flourish in ways he did not anticipate.

Rogoff underestimated how bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transaction medium of choice in the 20 trillion-dollar global underground economy.

"This demand puts a floor on its price, as I discuss at length in my new book Our Dollar, Your Problem," Rogoff said.

He also flagged a "blatant conflict of interest," with regulators "holding hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence."

coindesk.com