Economists expect GDP to stay flat in September. For the full quarter, consensus points to 0.7% growth, up from 0.5% in the April–June quarter, with annual growth seen rising to 1.9% from 1.4%.
A strong print would lift the pound and support risk appetite. A contraction would strengthen the case for Bank of England cuts. Bitcoin rarely moves on UK data alone, but a weak number could feed a wider growth scare and push some money toward gold.
2. November 13: US PPI – Will Producer Inflation Pressure Markets?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October producer prices at 8:30 a.m. ET. PPI often hints at where consumer prices head next, and traders will watch core PPI. Markets expect headline PPI to rise 0.4% in October after September’s 1.3% jump, taking the annual rate to 6.6% from 6.3%. Core PPI is forecast to rise 0.3% on the month, down from 0.7%, with the annual rate steady at 5%.
A reading above those forecasts would push Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY) higher, which tends to weigh on Bitcoin and tech stocks. Gold could receive a mixed signal, as inflation concerns support its hedge appeal while rising real yields limit gains. Conversely, a cooler reading could ease rate fears and support risk assets.
3. November 17: US Retail Sales – Is Consumer Spending Slowing?
September sales jumped 0.8% to $745 billion, up 6.3% from a year earlier. These are nominal figures, so part of the gain comes from higher prices and not from more goods sold. Forecasts point to a 0.6% gain in October. Sales excluding autos are seen rising 0.5% after a 0.9% increase, while the control group, which feeds into GDP, is expected to match September’s 0.1% rise.
Spending above the 0.6% forecast would support earnings, but it could also lift yields and the dollar if markets read it as inflationary. Weak spending could revive rate-cut bets. If it points to an overall slowdown, stocks and Bitcoin may fall anyway.
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4. November 18: UK CPI – Inflation Outlook and Bank of England Rate Expectations
Headline CPI jumped to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August. Services inflation climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%, a sign that underlying pressure has not eased. Forecasts see headline CPI holding at 3.5% in October, with prices up 0.4% on the month. Core inflation is expected to edge up to 2.9% from 2.8%, and services inflation to rise to 3.9%.
A print above 3.5% would firm up the pound and lift gilt yields as rate-cut bets fade. For Bitcoin and gold, the effect runs through global sentiment. Sticky inflation in a second major economy would make investors less confident that central banks can ease together.
5. November 18: FOMC Minutes – What Could the Fed Signal About Future Rates?
The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its October 27–28 meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET on November 18. The Fed held interest rates steady, but Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point increase.
Investors will examine the minutes for further details on policymakers’ concerns about persistent inflation, economic growth, and the outlook for future rate decisions. A hawkish account could push Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY) higher, potentially weighing on Bitcoin, gold, and technology stocks. A more cautious assessment of inflation could ease rate concerns and support risk assets.
6. November 19: Australian Jobs Data – Employment and Unemployment in Focus
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 4.85% this month and expects inflation to stay above 3% until late 2027. October labour force data will test how much more tightening the economy can absorb.
Employment fell by 39,300 in September, and the jobless rate rose to 4.7%. Forecasts point to a rebound of about 34,000 jobs in October, with unemployment steady at 4.7%.
Hiring above that forecast would support the Australian dollar and keep the RBA hawkish. Weak data would lift easing hopes. The direct hit to Bitcoin is small, but a tight labour market adds to the higher-for-longer story across major economies.
7. November 25: Australian CPI – Will Inflation Keep the RBA Hawkish?
Headline inflation reached 4.3% in September, while trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.6%. Both remain above the RBA’s 2%–3% target band. Monthly CPI increased by 0.8% in September. For October, forecasts point to headline inflation rising to 4.6% and the trimmed mean edging up to 3.7%, even as monthly CPI growth is expected to slow to 0.3%.
A reading above forecasts would reinforce expectations of further RBA tightening and push Australian bond yields higher. Conversely, cooler inflation could ease pressure on the central bank and support global risk appetite.
8. November 25: US Core PCE and GDP – A Key Test for Bitcoin and Global Markets
The Bureau of Economic Analysis closes the window at 8:30 a.m. ET with October PCE inflation and the second estimate of third-quarter GDP. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose 3.1% from a year earlier in September, well above the 2% target.
On a monthly basis, core PCE rose 0.3%. The advance estimate showed GDP growing at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second, and economists expect the second estimate to confirm that pace.
Cooler inflation with steady growth is the friendliest mix for Bitcoin and tech stocks, and lower real yields would help gold. Hot inflation with strong growth would lift yields and the dollar and pressure all three.
Sticky inflation with weaker growth raises stagflation risk, a setup where gold tends to hold up better than Bitcoin.
What to Watch Across the Two Weeks
The 10-year Treasury yield and DXY offer the clearest read on how markets absorb each release. Gold will respond to shifts in inflation expectations and real yields, while European and Asian indices will follow changes in US financial conditions.
Bitcoin can still break from macro on ETF flows or crypto-specific news, so traders should keep those in view alongside the calendar.
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Related: Could Friday’s PPI Turn December’s Fed Rate Decision More Hawkish?
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