“During the tournaments, FIFA World Cup markets made up approximately 63% of total prediction market volume,” the report said.
Traders in the US and China were the biggest contributors to the volume. Then came Canada, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. And the winners were the majority, with Chainalysis discovering that 55% of bettors were in profit. About 80% of them have already traded in prediction markets.
One market asked whether Cristiano Ronaldo would shed tears as his final international campaign drew to a close. The “yes” side was right, and that bet alone banked $49 million.
According to Arkham Intelligence data, a trader on-chain known as gud.hl staked $5.2 million on Argentina to win it all, primarily through Polymarket. Spain’s 1-0 victory in the final wiped out the position. It was most of the trader’s profit on the Hyperliquid platform.
Sanctioned wallets hit betting markets and skipped FIFA Collect
FIFA did its own on-chain experiment. The official FIFA Collect platform is built on Avalanche, and fans have used it to buy and sell digital moments from the tournament. These collectibles were also a way to the stadiums.
More than 100,000 match tickets were processed through the platform, with holders either redeeming or reselling assets for entry. Trades in the stablecoin marketplace amounted to $24 million, and FIFA earned at least $6 million in transaction fees.
FIFA Collect mandated ID verification. Chainalysis said less than 0.01% of its users held wallets associated with sanctioned entities. That is a much cleaner profile than the open prediction market.
Chainalysis pointed to illicit flows almost entirely on the betting side. The firm identified ~3,700 wallets associated with illicit actors, less than 1% of participants. Most of the $5.4 million was traced to the sanctioned exchange Huobi, now branded HTX.
The remaining funds were in scam-linked wallets and stolen funds. On a $20 billion base, even a sub-1% share is meaningful exposure for anyone screening the money, Chainalysis noted.
In June, Cryptopolitan covered TRM Labs’ flagging of live scam wallets connected to fake ticketing and rigged-match betting schemes. The FBI issued its own alert about more than 30 fake FIFA sites.
“The World Cup offers a microcosm of crypto’s expanding role in everyday life, and a preview of why the tools to follow the money will need to keep pace,” Chainalysis wrote.
cryptopolitan.com
