coindesk.com
The rapid consolidation of the prediction market technology stack is raising the odds of a new wave of mergers and acquisitions across sports betting and financial markets, according to Wall Street broker Bernstein.
Over the past eight months, every major consumer-facing prediction platform has moved to own both customer distribution and exchange infrastructure, the report said.
"Kalshi and Polymarket own the stack but trail on distribution, which leaves each as plausibly a target as an acquirer," analysts led by Ian Moore said in the Monday report.
The analysts noted that DraftKings acquired Railbird to launch its DKeX exchange, Robinhood partnered with Susquehanna to build Rothera, Coinbase acquired The Clearing Company shortly after launching event contracts, and Flutter established a dual-FCM structure to preserve access to multiple exchanges.
The trend reflects Bernstein's view that prediction markets are converging with sports betting and consumer finance into a single competitive landscape, opening the door to combinations that previously seemed unlikely, including sportsbooks buying exchanges, exchanges buying sportsbooks, and consolidation among sportsbook operators themselves.
Prediction markets have surged into the financial mainstream over the past two years, fueled by the success of election betting, the expansion of sports event contracts and growing adoption by major retail trading platforms. Companies including Robinhood, Coinbase and DraftKings have launched or expanded prediction market offerings as trading volumes on industry leaders Kalshi and Polymarket have climbed sharply, drawing heightened investor interest and regulatory scrutiny.
Despite the sector's rapid growth, prediction markets continue to face significant regulatory and legal uncertainty. State gaming regulators have argued that sports event contracts amount to unlicensed sports betting, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has asserted exclusive federal jurisdiction over the products, setting up a growing legal battle that could ultimately be decided by the courts.
The CFTC is also developing a formal rulemaking process for event contracts as lawmakers and consumer advocates raise concerns over market integrity, consumer protection and potential manipulation.
The economics are already shifting, the report noted. Companies that own their exchanges are retaining revenue that previously flowed to third-party platforms. Robinhood routed its highest-volume World Cup contracts through Rothera rather than Kalshi, while DraftKings shifted prediction market trading from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Crypto.com infrastructure onto DKeX in late June.