decrypt.co
In brief
- Trump appeared to soften criticism of prediction markets just two days after saying they helped turn the world into “a casino.”
- Over the weekend, he noted “very smart” people support the industry.
- Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., has ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi.
President Donald Trump appeared to walk back criticism of prediction markets over the weekend, suggesting he wasn’t yet sure where he stood on the matter or whether he’d prefer if the emerging sector were regulated differently.
On Thursday, the president told reporters he was “never much in favor” of prediction markets—a booming industry that now accounts for over $7 billion in weekly trading volume—which he said have played a part in turning “the whole world, unfortunately [into] somewhat of a casino.”
The comments came hours after federal law enforcement arrested a U.S. soldier for allegedly using classified intelligence to net over $400,000 from a Polymarket wager on the timing of a high-profile military operation.
But on Saturday, Trump seemed to retract his critique, saying he wasn’t sure where he stood on the subject—and arguing some “very smart” people believe the novel sector is worth supporting.
“Well, I don’t know,” Trump said when asked by Decrypt about his prior statements critical of prediction markets. “I know some people that are very smart. They like it, they disagree.”
When asked if he would consider directing his administration to change its aggressively pro-prediction market policies, the president demurred.
“A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the cold if we don’t do it,” Trump said.
“I know people that are in the prediction market business, and they’re pretty happy with it,” he added.
Decrypt's White House correspondent @sander_lutz asked President Trump about his comments on prediction markets from earlier this week:
“A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the cold if we don’t.” pic.twitter.com/IWPwxXDP7c
— Decrypt (@DecryptMedia) April 25, 2026
Prediction markets allow their users to wager on the outcome of virtually anything—from crypto and traditional markets to sports, cultural events, and political elections. The industry has experienced massive growth in the last two years, leading to ballooning billion-dollar valuations for the top players in the space.
The president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is an advisor to both of America’s top prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi. He is also an investor in Polymarket.
The president's own media company, meanwhile, has also embraced the novel sector, launching a Trump Predict tie-in to Truth Social, his social media platform.
Because prediction markets trade in what are known as event contracts, a type of derivative contract legally defined as a commodity, they are regulated by the CFTC at the federal level. The regulator, chaired by Trump-appointee Mike Selig, has recently rushed to the legal defense of prediction market platforms, which are facing a flurry of lawsuits from states across the political spectrum.
The states insist new types of prediction market wagers—related to sports and, in some cases, politics and entertainment—violate state gambling laws. The platforms, on the other hand, claim none of their wagers should be regulated at the state level—and all should be treated as event contracts under the exclusive federal purview of the CFTC.
The CFTC’s forceful campaign against state regulators has recently caught attention on Capitol HIll. Lawmakers have expressed concerns about the agency’s stance, and its potential implications for insider trading and the proliferation of unregulated gambling in the United States.