protos.com
Someone built a money-losing Polymarket bot that only spends money on “No” trades, i.e. bets that events won’t occur.
It is a little-known fact that approximately three-quarters of all Polymarket bets resolve to a No outcome.
Artist and former Apple researcher Sterling Crispin turned that statistic into a trading bot and open-sourced its code. He published the bot, dubbed Nothing Ever Happens, on April 12, warning his followers to watch the journey, but not to expect profits.
The announcement went viral.
“Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No?” Crispin wrote. “Stop over thinking it. Nothing Ever Happens.”
That number is pretty close. Polymarket’s own accuracy page put the resolution split at 73.3% No and 26.7% Yes across all resolved markets. In other words, the thesis does come straight from the platform, in a way.
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Probabilities do not guarantee profits
However, knowing that three-quarters of outcomes resolve to No doesn’t necessarily produce a profitable strategy on its own.
Polymarket event contracts open for trading with built-in Yes and No contract prices, adjusted for other odds of an idiosyncratic event occurring.
Consider a No opening for trading at $0.75, for example, which return $1 on a win. That 2,500 basis point profit barely covers the 26.7% of the time the bet is likely to lose entirely.
Crispin appears to understand this. After the original post went viral, he acknowledged “this has to buy below $0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at $0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to $0.50.”
A ceiling of $0.65 means the bot only buys when No is priced on Polymarket at or below 65%. It hunts for markets where the crowd hasn’t yet priced in the base rate likelihood of a No resolution.
The GitHub repository carries a disclaimer in bold italic: For entertainment only, use at your own risk.
A dashboard screenshot attached to the original post showed a portfolio of $2,859 mostly for demonstration purposes. The code repository has attracted over 400 stars and ships under a public domain copyright license.
Introducing: Nothing Ever Happens
— Sterling Crispin 🕊️ (@sterlingcrispin) April 12, 2026
A @Polymarket bot that automatically buys "No" for every non-sports market and holds to resolution.
Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No? Stop over thinking it. Nothing Ever Happens.https://t.co/wLUfZkRbif pic.twitter.com/pMCePqtqtz
Yet another bot losing money on Polymarket
On-chain analysis of 2.5 million wallets by researcher Andrey Sergeenkov found that 84.1% of wallets that have traded on Polymarket have lost money. Only 0.033% have earned more than $100,000.
The simplest possible strategy — to bet on No and walk away — outperforms most of the platform’s users.
Polymarket has leaned into the premise for media attention. Incredibly, the platform hosts a “Nothing Ever Happens” series of parlay markets.
These parlays bundle unlikely events (China invades Taiwan,bitcoin hits $1 million, Trump acquires Greenland) and let traders bet that none of them occur.
A 2026 annual edition carries $489,000 in volume with “Nothing” priced at 56%.
Unsurprisingly, the parlays haven’t paid off. The Jerome Powell Edition resolved to “No,” meaning something did happen. So did the US Strike Edition, after US military action met one of its trigger conditions.
Crispin isn’t a typical crypto trader. He describes himself as a conceptual artist and software engineer and previously spent years at Apple contributing to neurotechnology patents for the Vision Pro headset.