The Dry Powder Thesis
Since the start of February, Circle has minted over $8 billion in $USDC, pushing total circulation above $78 billion even as crypto markets were at their weakest.
Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham flagged the on-chain activity on X, asking pointedly whether that kind of minting is normal for a bear market. Their on-chain data shows where this supply is actually sitting: 66% of circulating $USDC is on Ethereum, with 10.7% on Solana equating to $8.4 billion, and further chunks spread across Ethereum Layer 2s including Base at 5.5% and Arbitrum at 2.7%.
That distribution matters because it shows capital parked across the most active trading and DeFi networks, not withdrawn from the ecosystem.
In traditional finance, this is called dry powder: capital held in reserve, ready to deploy the moment conditions shift.
$USDC Is Winning the Stablecoin Race
Within that broader story, $USDC has overtaken Tether’s $USDT in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019. Adjusted volume strips out automated transfers and internal movements to give a cleaner read on real economic activity. On that measure, Mizuho reports $USDC recorded roughly $2.2 trillion year-to-date against $USDT’s $1.3 trillion, a 64% share.
Mizuho raised its Circle price target to $120 on the back of the data. Bernstein went further at $190, citing $USDC’s supply resilience through the crypto downturn as a structural signal rather than a short-term move. The regulated stablecoin is gaining serious ground.
Also Read: Why Is Tether $USDT Supply Crashing? Biggest Monthly Drop Since FTX as $USDC Surges
Why the Scale of This Matters
Stablecoins processed $33 trillion in transactions in 2025, matching Visa’s annual volume. In Nigeria, 59% of crypto users hold $USDT as a dollar savings account against a weakening local currency. The same pattern runs through Argentina, Colombia and the Philippines. This capital base is deep, global and increasingly looking for somewhere to go.
Stablecoin Ownership by Country – 2026 Data
Nigeria dominates globally:
✅ 59% own $USDT
✅ 48% own $USDC
When your local currency keeps losing value, stablecoins become your savings account.
Key Insight: $USDC is beating $USDT in 5 countries – Colombia, South Africa, US,… pic.twitter.com/J3X02eYEzF
— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) March 16, 2026
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has projected the stablecoin market reaches $3 trillion by 2030. With crypto sentiment recovering and stablecoin market cap crossing over $300 billion, the infrastructure carrying the next wave of capital is building steadily.
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