Former FED Vice Chair Shares Predictions on Wednesday’s Interest Rate Decision – Critical Forecasts

Former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said on CNBC's “Squawk Box” program that the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates at this week's meeting.

Ferguson stated that in the current economic conditions, the central bank is operating in a “wait-and-see” mode and must be patient.

Ferguson said, “The Fed will not cut interest rates at this meeting or even the next one. They hope inflation will decline further, but they will continue to be cautious.” He said the Fed will send “vigilant and patient” messages to the market in its statements this week, and that this situation may disappoint some segments.

Ferguson said that what is described as a “good rate cut”, that is, a rate cut made only when inflation falls without a slowdown in the economy or a disruption in the labor market, does not seem likely this year. “The Fed came very close to a soft landing this year, but there are still many risks. Perhaps a more clear picture emerges next year and if inflation continues to decline, a limited rate cut may be on the agenda,” he said.

The program also brought up geopolitical risks in the Gulf and the possible effects of oil prices. Ferguson argued that the increases in oil prices have not been reflected in core inflation so far, but that this could change and that the FED should be careful.

When the presenters reminded him of President Trump’s approach of “cutting interest rates now while inflation is low, and raising them later if necessary,” Ferguson approached this suggestion cautiously. “In the past, inflation has been short-lived in the downward trend. There is also the risk that inflation expectations will deteriorate. The FED was late to address inflation in the previous cycle. They don’t want to make the same mistake again,” he said.

*This is not investment advice.