cryptopolitan.com
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is on a wild ride as it runs up by 119% over the past year. Mostly seen as the Bitcoin proxy stock now boasts a staggering $101 billion market cap. However, its recent bet on Bitcoin might have opened a crack beneath the surface.
10X Research warns that Strategy’s days of high-flying volume may be over. Retail traders who were chasing the rally could soon shift toward even riskier, more volatile names like Metaplanet. This comes in when $BTC went on to hit a fresh all-time high (ATH) of over $111,900 on May 22 before tracing back to the $107k zone.
Strategy risks steep pullback
Options traders say the days of 200–300% implied volatility are gone. Strategy’s at-the-money options now sit at 76%, which is still high, while the realized volatility is collapsing. For MSTR, declining volume also means less opportunity to source cheap volatility and sell it at a premium.
The report highlighted that the market could enter a phase where Strategy can acquire significantly less Bitcoin than it has over the past six months. 10x Research stated that it would “consider shorting MicroStrategy at $400, setting a stop loss at $430, and risking $30 to potentially gain $100 if the stock retreats to $300.”
It added that the momentum is fading as bearish divergences are flashing, and all three major reversal indicators have flipped negative. The 21-day moving average is sitting at $390, and below that level, long positions start looking shaky. A pullback could happen simply due to a compression in net asset value or, more broadly, if Bitcoin begins to consolidate. It is inevitable unless Strategy continues to drive it higher.
If MicroStrategy fails to hold the $400 level, the door to $300 swings is wide open. And as $BTC volatility cools, the upside chase might move elsewhere, it added.
MSTR’s Bitcoin bet grows
As of May 2025, Strategy holds 568,840 Bitcoin (approx. worth $60 billion), after adding a massive 80,715 $BTC just in Q1. It is suggested that the pace of Bitcoin accumulation may slow as the past six months saw unprecedented $BTC purchases. Maintaining that momentum will be tough without further capital or massive Bitcoin price surges.
Strategy stock price has dropped by 7.5% in the last trading session to stand at $369.51. After-hours trading data shows that it might drop by another 3% to touch the $366 zone. However, it is still up by 23% year to date (YTD).
Bitcoin has seen a week full of fluctuations. On Monday, $BTC was trading around $103K and went on to knock $106K in a few hours and saw a dump to straight $102K area. The original crypto then hovered above the $111K, trying to breach into $112K, but failed. Bitcoin is trading at an average of $107,380 at press time with a trading volume of $45 billion.