Ethereum must clear $2,500 resistance to confirm recovery: analyst

This article was updated with comments from Bitmine chairman Tom Lee.

Ethereum price has remained under pressure near the $2,100 zone after failing to reclaim a key long-term resistance level, while analysts warned that the asset still risks another major leg lower unless bulls recover momentum above $2,500.

According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum ($ETH) price traded near $2,086 on Wednesday, holding slightly above the psychological $2,000 support area after weeks of sideways consolidation.

The token has struggled to sustain rebounds since rejecting the 200-week simple moving average near $2,470 earlier this quarter, with traders continuing to rotate cautiously amid mixed ETF demand and weakening momentum across major altcoins.

Analyst Ali Martinez said Ethereum’s path back toward a bullish structure requires “reclaiming the 200-week SMA at $2,500” followed by “a clean break above the 50-week SMA at $3,100.” Until then, $ETH remains trapped inside what he described as a multi-year range that has contained price action since 2021.

The weekly chart reinforces that view. $ETH continues to trade below both the 200-week SMA near $2,472 and the 50-week SMA around $3,054 after failing to hold a recovery above the mid-range resistance earlier this year. Consecutive lower highs have formed since the late-2025 peak near $4,800, while the latest rebound attempt stalled below the $2,400-$2,500 supply zone.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s daily chart shows a developing bearish Adam and Eve structure stretching from April into May.

The pattern formed after $ETH surged vertically toward the $2,420 resistance zone before entering a slower, rounded consolidation phase that later rolled over into renewed selling pressure. The neckline currently sits near the $1,950 support area.

A confirmed breakdown below that level projects a measured downside target near $1,450 based on the height of the formation.

Momentum indicators have also weakened. The daily RSI hovered near 37 at press time, remaining below the neutral 50 line after trending lower throughout May. At the same time, the Aroon indicator showed the bearish trend component maintaining dominance, with Aroon Down near 71 while Aroon Up remained pinned near zero during the latest selloff sequence.

In a May 26 X post discussing Ethereum’s weekly structure, Martinez warned that the most important support level now sits near $1,850. According to the analyst, a weekly close beneath that level would likely accelerate downside volatility toward $1,560, followed by a possible retest of the lower multi-year range boundary near $1,070.

“From a purely technical perspective, the broader channel structure points to two major downside targets following this rejection,” said Martinez.

Meanwhile, fellow analyst Dennis also warned of a potential drop toward the $1,600 to $1,700 region if Bitcoin slides to $65,000 amid renewed market weakness.

Institutional buyers accumulate $ETH during market weakness

While the technical setup remains fragile, large corporate buyers have continued accumulating Ether during the correction.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies disclosed this week that it purchased another 111,942 $ETH after the latest market pullback briefly pushed prices below $2,200. The purchase brought the company’s holdings to nearly 5.4 million $ETH, strengthening its position as the largest Ethereum treasury firm in the market.

In a recent company press release, Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, said the company still expects “a supercycle ahead for crypto and Ethereum,” citing tokenization demand from Wall Street and the expansion of AI-powered blockchain agents as long-term catalysts for the network.

Bitmine’s accumulation strategy has drawn comparisons to Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury model, though the firm has focused entirely on Ethereum. The company previously purchased more than 100,000 $ETH per week during a three-week buying streak earlier this year. According to Lee, Bitmine ultimately wants to control roughly 5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, a target requiring more than 6 million $ETH.

Vitalik Buterin added another layer to the institutional narrative after confirming that the Ethereum Foundation would narrow its operational priorities and focus mainly on “critical, non-replaceable activities.” The Ethereum co-founder also disclosed that nearly 90% of his personal net worth remains allocated to $ETH despite the prolonged correction.

At the same time, debate around $ETH’s long-term value accrual has intensified inside the Ethereum community itself.

Bankless co-founder David Hoffman said he recently sold his $ETH because he no longer believes Ethereum’s network success will fully translate into proportional gains for the asset.

“I am massively bullish Ethereum,” Hoffman wrote, while arguing that only a “marginal amount” of the ecosystem’s future growth may ultimately benefit $ETH holders directly.

Hoffman’s comments arrived as Ethereum exchange-traded fund flows remained inconsistent throughout May. Several U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have posted alternating inflow and outflow sessions in recent weeks as institutional investors continue favoring Bitcoin exposure during periods of macro uncertainty.

According to CoinGlass data, Ethereum open interest has also declined from local highs reached earlier this quarter, suggesting leveraged traders have reduced directional exposure after multiple failed breakout attempts above $2,400. Funding rates across major perpetual futures exchanges have remained mostly neutral to slightly negative, showing limited appetite for aggressive long positioning at current levels.

Liquidation maps from derivatives platforms continue to show dense short-term leverage clusters concentrated between $2,250 and $2,400. A sharp move above that region could trigger a temporary squeeze toward the 200-week SMA near $2,500. Below current prices, liquidation pockets have formed around the $1,900 and $1,800 zones, increasing the risk of rapid volatility if support fails.

Macro risks continue to pressure Ethereum sentiment

Outside crypto-specific catalysts, macro conditions have continued limiting risk appetite across digital assets.

Federal Reserve policy expectations remain a major variable for Ethereum and the broader altcoin market. Traders have continued monitoring U.S. inflation data, Treasury yields, and labor-market reports for clues about the timing of future rate cuts. Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations have generally pressured speculative assets throughout 2026, particularly technology-linked crypto sectors such as Ethereum and AI-related tokens.

Oil markets have added another layer of uncertainty. Brent crude prices have remained volatile following repeated geopolitical tensions surrounding Middle East shipping routes and ongoing negotiations tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Previous spikes in energy prices this year triggered broad selloffs across crypto markets as investors reduced exposure to higher-risk assets.

On-chain valuation metrics, however, have started attracting long-term accumulation interest despite the weak chart structure.

Martinez highlighted Ethereum’s 0.8 Market Value to Realized Value pricing band near $1,850 as a historically important accumulation area. According to the analyst, previous drops below that threshold rarely lasted long before $ETH established macro bottoms and entered new bullish cycles.