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Corporate Accounts Drove 78% of Trading
Brazil's presidential runoff fell on a Sunday, when the country's stock and currency markets sit dark, and the gap pushed corporate treasuries toward stablecoins. Corporate accounts generated 78% of trading on Mercado Bitcoin ($BTC) that day, the exchange's official disclosure states, with retail clients responsible for the remaining 22%. Turnover in Tether's $USDT jumped nearly 800% from the previous Sunday and ran above triple the average of the four preceding Sundays; bitcoin volume on the platform surged 865% over the same span. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took the runoff with 51.79% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, after a ballot extended by a disputed two-hour order from the president's former defense attorney. Prediction markets missed the turn: Kalshi put Bolsonaro's chances at 84% on October 24, and both Kalshi and Polymarket have been blocked in Brazil since April, leaving onshore traders without those gauges. Lula's program of higher social spending, plus a ban on online betting that would cut tax receipts, had weighed on the real and kept borrowing costs elevated through the campaign, and his win made him the first candidate in Brazil's modern democracy to overcome a second-place first-round finish. The exchange attributed the session to companies protecting their treasuries and noted its corporate clients hold as much as 15% of their assets on the platform. Research analyst Pedro Fontes wrote that under sharper exchange-rate pressure, tokens such as $USDT and $USDC offer a simple route to dollarizing part of a portfolio at any hour and from very small amounts, and that stronger opposition in Congress could complicate fiscal repairs.
Ibovespa Fell 14% the Next Day
The damage to Brazilian risk assets landed the next day. On Monday the benchmark Ibovespa index crashed 14%, its worst single session since March 2020, and the dollar jumped more than 8% against the real, the currency's steepest daily gain since 1999. Crypto venues quoted real pairs around the clock, which made them the only onshore dollar window during the vote, and the burst spread across venues: aggregation data covering 10 exchanges, including Binance and Mercado Bitcoin ($BTC), shows $USDT turnover against the real rose 150% from the previous Sunday while $USDC turnover rose 318%. The aggregation spans venues of very different sizes, so its growth rates cannot be read one to one against a single exchange's figures. $USDT remains the largest dollar-pegged token and $USDC the second, so together they track dollar demand almost directly. Momentum carried into Monday, when combined $USDT and $USDC turnover reached 1.84 billion reais, about $350 million, 65% above the same weekday the prior week, and bitcoin trading climbed more than ninefold to 1,336 $BTC. The moves stayed local. Turnover in the $BTC/BRL pair on Binance rose 370% while the global $BTC pair recorded a 25% decline; Bitcoin ($BTC) gained 9.4% when priced in reais yet slipped 0.2% against $USDT, a pattern consistent with a repricing of Brazil's currency rather than a move in crypto itself. That contrast shows where the demand sat: local real-denominated pairs absorbed hedging flow while global $USDT markets, which set worldwide prices, saw volume drain away. Three weeks earlier, markets had read the same election the other way: after Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round, the Ibovespa jumped 7.7% and the dollar weakened more than 4% against the real as investors anticipated a change of government and tighter control over spending.
