US Bitcoin Reserve Bill Advances, but Odds of 2027 Law Drop to 6%

The US House Financial Services Committee has voted to advance the unprecedented Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, now known as the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026 (H.R. 8957). Despite this development, the odds of the proposal becoming law by 2027 are now as low as 6%, down from a 60% high in December.

Source: Polymarket

US Bitcoin Reserve (ARMA) agenda

In March 2205, US President Donald Trump signed an official decree to include Bitcoin ($BTC) as a national reserve asset. However, for this directive to be executed as federal law, it had to go through the official bill-to-law process.

Its agenda includes a two-decade Bitcoin lockup and an accumulation goal of 1 million $BTC over five years. Others include budget-neutral $BTC acquisition, a digital asset stockpile for altcoins, and regular third-party audits.

While introduced as a bipartisan push, the bill passed the committee today on a 28-21 vote, with the majority being Republicans.

Headwinds facing the crypto reserve bill

There are several reasons for public anticipation of a miss in legalizing the bill:

The first is the recent rejection of the CLARITY Act, despite multiple negotiations since its introduction nearly a year and a half ago.

The second is the tight Congressional schedule as attention shifts to midterm elections.

Third is the misalignment among government agencies over who should oversee the multi-million dollar digital reserve. The DoJ’s Office of Legal Counsel is now mediating the oversight dispute among the Treasury, Commerce, and Justice departments.

Bitcoin price forecast

Bitcoin now hovers around the support zone of $75,719, declining from $79K in the week. Its future price could be affected by the recent Fed decision to hike interest rates for the first time since 2023. Another key driver is $BTC spot ETF flow, which turned negative (-$450M) on September 15.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Short-term upward resistance is currently at $76,000-$77,000, with a break below current support opening downside towards $74,000-$73,500.