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Bitcoin must defend the $62,800-$63,600 zone or risk another drop toward $60,000-$62,000. Still, its monthly structure keeps the long-term $400,000 projection alive if the current move becomes another bear trap.
Bitcoin’s $62,800 Support Could Decide the Next Major Move
Bitcoin is bouncing from the $62,800-$63,600 demand zone after rejecting the recent highs. The reaction here will determine whether $BTC makes another run toward $66,000-$67,000 or extends its decline toward lower liquidity.
$BTC chart. Source: Kaz/X
The latest rally above $64,700 failed to hold, trapping buyers who entered after the breakout. That rejection strengthens the view that the move toward $65,500 was a liquidity sweep rather than the start of a sustained advance.
Buyers are now defending an imbalance and demand area between $62,800 and $63,600. A strong rebound and reclaim of $64,700 would improve the short-term structure and could bring $66,000-$67,000 back into focus.
However, liquidity has continued to build below $62,000, giving price a reason to move lower if the demand zone fails. A decisive break below $62,800 would expose the $60,000-$62,000 region and confirm that sellers remain in control.
For now, the bounce keeps both outcomes open, but the failed breakout above recent highs gives the setup a bearish lean. Bitcoin must hold the demand zone and recover $64,700 to shift momentum back toward buyers.
Bitcoin’s Monthly Channel Keeps $400,000 Target Alive
Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of a rising channel that has guided its long-term structure since the 2018 bear market bottom. Analyst Gert van Lagen views the latest move as a possible third bear trap before a final major expansion.
$BTC monthly chart. Source: Gert van Lagen/X
The chart compares the current setup with similar breakdowns in 2019 and 2022. In both cases, Bitcoin briefly moved below or tested the channel floor before recovering and beginning a larger advance.
The Elliott Wave count suggests Bitcoin remains in the fourth-wave correction of a broader five-wave structure. Holding the lower trendline would support the case for a final fifth wave, with the projected target rising toward $400,000 as the channel expands over time.
However, Bitcoin still needs to recover from the trendline and form stronger monthly highs before the projected move gains confirmation. A sustained breakdown would weaken the bear-trap interpretation and suggest the correction has more room to develop.
Van Lagen places the wider invalidation level near $31,000. As long as Bitcoin remains above that area, the long-term bullish count stays technically possible, but the $400,000 target remains a high-risk cycle projection rather than a confirmed destination.