The structure from the May 23 low shows five waves up into the May 25 swing high followed by a three-wave pullback back down. That pattern is consistent with a wave one and wave two setup, meaning the next move from this support level could be the beginning of a stronger third wave rally.
However the invalidation point is clear and close. A decisive break below $74,950 turns the three-wave decline from the May highs into what analysts would classify as five waves down, which would increase the probability that Bitcoin already put in a meaningful top in May around $82,000.
Two Scenarios Playing Out
Scenario One: Bounce and Recovery
Bitcoin holds $74,950, stabilises, and begins moving higher. The first resistance levels to clear are $76,000 to $77,300, followed by the recent swing high at $78,200. A break above $78,200 would increase the probability of another run toward the $82,000 area. An extended rally toward $95,000 remains technically possible within the Elliott Wave framework but would be atypical for a bear market structure.
Scenario Two: Break Lower and Confirmation of Top
Bitcoin breaks decisively below $74,950 and produces one more swing low. This completes five waves down from the May high and provides significant confirmation that a major top formed at $82,000. In this scenario the next meaningful support sits considerably lower with $39,000 cited as a longer-term target if a full C-wave decline develops.
What to Watch Today
The market is at an inflection point right now. $74,950 is support. $78,200 is the first meaningful resistance above. A hold and bounce from current levels keeps the upside scenario alive. A clean break lower removes it.
In bear markets clarity comes quickly at levels like this. Today’s price action will likely answer the question that has been building for weeks.
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