$BTC remains range-bound, with whale order liquidity setting the pace, establishing a price floor at $86,000 and a sell wall above $90,000. | Source: CoinGlass.
The orders are supporting relatively fearful trading, as the crypto fear and greed index dipped to 29 points, indicating fear.
$BTC is still seeking direction amid weakening trading volumes, with interest shifting to the record-breaking precious metals and stocks.
$BTC trading reverses to whale activity
After October’s downturn, most of the activity on major coins and tokens reversed to whales. $BTC is now predominantly moved by whales, while accumulation is happening on mid-sized wallets.
Recent data shows a pickup in the exchange whale ratio, with more big players making deposits and withdrawals.
Whale orders remain relatively neutral at the moment, showing silent accumulation. Large-scale buying and withdrawals are happening more rarely. In January, big whale orders returned, although not at a scale seen during previous market rallies. The buying signals accumulation, rather than FOMO as $BTC has lost its momentum.
For now, whale behavior shows no clear signs of bullishness or expecting a breakout. Binance reserves in stablecoins have decreased, while $BTC deposits and reserves increased in the past weeks.
$BTC retains low open interest
$BTC derivative trading remains slow, with open interest still at $27B. Historically, it would take three to six months for open interest to recover. However, after months of regular liquidations and range-bound trading, derivative markets lost their confidence.
The current spot accumulation reflects some longer-term confidence, but the current positions are not indicating a bet on a bigger rally. Any recovery above $90,000 in the past weeks has led to another round of large-scale long liquidations.
$BTC whale orders are picking up, but remain smaller compared to previous market periods. | Source: CryptoQuant.
Based on the liquidation heatmap, most of the leveraged positions are longing $BTC at the $86,000 range. There is more limited liquidity available only up to $92,000, with a limited potential for a short squeeze.
Derivative markets also confirm the whale order range, with a potential price floor of $86,000. The recent price moves locked $BTC into a lower price range, despite expectations for a rally at the start of 2026. In January to date, $BTC only added a net 0.97%, with even more weakness observed for altcoins.