coindesk.com
The Oct. 10 crypto crash and lack of sizable bounce since continues to shake up sentiment among the bulls.
Less than three weeks after saying a rise to $135,000 appeared imminent, Standard Chartered head of digital asset research Geoffrey Kendrick said a decline below $100,000 now appears "inevitable."
In a note to clients on Wednesday, Kendrick said the recent high of $126,000 on Oct. 6 matched his near-term target but failed to hold as broader macro fears — particularly around U.S.-China trade tensions — triggered a market-wide selloff.
“Since then, the 10 October US-China trade war fear driven selloff put paid to any further push higher,” Kendrick wrote. “The question now is how far does bitcoin need to fall before finding a base?”
The good news, said Kendrick, is that the decline below $100,000 should be short-lived and is likely to mark the last-ever chance to buy BTC for six figure.
Three key signals could mark the turning point, he said. The first is capital flow between gold and bitcoin. Kendrick noted that a sharp gold selloff this week coincided with an intraday bounce in bitcoin, possibly signaling a rotation from gold to crypto. “Further such evidence would be constructive for a bitcoin low being formed,” he added.
Second, Kendrick is watching for signs that the Federal Reserve may end quantitative tightening. He points to several liquidity measures that have been tightening steadily. A Fed response could provide the macro backdrop for bitcoin to climb again.
Finally, even though he doesn’t consider himself a technical analyst, Kendrick highlighted that bitcoin has consistently held above its 50-week moving average since early 2023, when it was trading around $25,000.
In an earlier note on Oct. 3, Kendrick forecasted a new all-time high and set a year-end price target of $200,000. At the time, he cited U.S. government shutdown risks, bitcoin’s correlation to Treasury premiums and shifting ETF inflows as reasons for bullish momentum.
While Bitcoin’s rally has stalled, Kendrick remains confident in a longer-term uptrend, urging investors to treat any drop below $100K as a potential entry point, not a sign of reversal.