Millionaire Raoul Pal Explains Why Bitcoin Isn’t at $200,000 Yet and Predicts When the Next Rally Will Begin

Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, highlighted a frequently shared chart in the market that shows Bitcoin ($BTC) has been moving in parallel with the global M2 money supply for a long time.

The model in question revealed that Bitcoin follows M2 changes with a delay of approximately 12 weeks and predicted that if this correlation continues, $BTC could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.

However, Pal argued that this relationship broke down starting July 16th. While global M2 continued to expand, Bitcoin traded sideways throughout the summer. According to Pal, this was not due to the model's obsolescence, but rather to the liquidity tightening measures implemented by the US Treasury Department through the Treasury General Account (TGA).

The NPL is the US government's main operating account at the Federal Reserve, where tax revenues, bond sales, and other cash flows are collected and used to cover federal spending. Pal noted that the Treasury has refilled the NPL by issuing approximately $500 billion worth of bonds since July, bringing the balance to a multi-year high of approximately $800 billion. This liquidity drain has depressed cryptocurrencies the most among risk assets.

Pal predicts that the TGA has now strengthened sufficiently that the liquidity drawdown will be completely over by the end of the month. He argues that Bitcoin could re-enter its M2-driven upward trajectory once market conditions return to normal.

*This is not investment advice.