“The fact that the markets did not react to major macro factors like the U.S. losing its AAA credit rating also demonstrates growing investor confidence,” Toledano explained. The Unity Wallet executive continued:
Additionally, the expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut — possibly as early as July — have reignited bullish positioning. Together, these elements have restored momentum after Friday’s dip, suggesting continued institutional appetite and improved investor confidence are the primary forces driving today’s recovery.
Bitcoin’s upbeat climb precedes the coming FOMC meeting, and while July remains an option, it is certainly a consideration. Data from the CME Fedwatch Tool along with forecasts from Polymarket and Kalshi point to the likelihood of any rate change in June being very low. The CME Fedwatch tool indicates a 99.9% chance the Fed will keep rates the same this month. Nevertheless, for July, there is a 14.9% probability a quarter-point reduction could occur, as stated by CME’s futures.
“Looking forward, a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, particularly a summer rate cut of between 25-50 basis points, would likely accelerate bitcoin’s climb by making risk assets more attractive,” Toledano concluded. “Persistent ETF inflows and continuing regulatory progress would also bolster upward momentum. However, $BTC must also overcome strong resistance around $112K–$125K, where profit-taking could trigger temporary pullbacks before any new highs are tested.”
Could a Pullback to $92K Happen?
Sergei Gorev, the risk head at Youhodler, pointed out that both bitcoin and gold have responded to changes within the U.S. monetary markets. “[Bitcoin] quotes are currently in a state of uncertainty,” Gorev said in a note shared with our newsdesk. “On the one hand, many global traders are gradually withdrawing from the U.S. currency and shifting to more risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.”
Gorev added:
This has a positive effect on the $BTC exchange rate. On the other hand, the price on the $BTC chart is behaving extremely erratically, and there is currently a possibility of a local price hike. There is a ‘Head and Shoulders’ picture, which, when implemented in its scenario, can lead to a correction in the price of $BTC to the level of $92,000 per 1 $BTC.