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Analysis: Bitcoin long-term holders hold firm despite 47% rally from recent lows

source-logo  crypto.news 28 May 2025 04:42, UTC
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Bitcoin has surged more than 47% from its recent lows, hitting a new all-time high in May as holding patterns show strong accumulation.

Unlike in past market cycles, long-term holders are not in a hurry to sell. On-chain data reveals a notable lack of aggressive selling despite substantial profit potential, indicating strong conviction among long-term investors and little structural drag on the uptrend.

Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts stated in a May 28 X post that the LTH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator is one of the most obvious indicators of this resilience. Although this metric peaked at 17 in 2017, 8 in 2021, and 4.3 in early 2024, it is currently only at 2.1.

While MVRV and NUPL measure the potential for profit-taking, LTH-SOPR captures when that potential is realized—when long-term holders actually move coins to lock in gains or cut losses.

At previous tops, the signal has been clear: LTH-SOPR hit 17 in 2017, 8 in 2021, and 4.3 in… pic.twitter.com/KM5ENDNHa6

— Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) May 28, 2025

This shows that LTHs are realizing fewer profits than they did during previous bull runs, even with Bitcoin’s ($BTC) recent surge. Although there will inevitably be some re-distribution in response to rising prices, Coutts stressed that the current muted activity indicates long-term confidence is still strong.

This view is supported by Glassnode data. Accumulation patterns can be seen in almost every wallet type. Alongside larger cohorts such as those with 100–1,000 $BTC and 1,000–10,000 $BTC, wallets with less than 1 $BTC have also returned to accumulation mode. The only group that still exhibits net selling behavior is the 1–10 $BTC group.

Further, profit-taking during Bitcoin’s latest breakout has been surprisingly restrained. Glassnode noted that when $BTC surpassed $100,000 last December, realized profit volumes exceeded $2.1 billion. In contrast, the most recent rally to a new high saw just $1 billion in realized profits, despite higher prices.

When $BTC hit all-time high yesterday, total profit-taking volume was around $1.00B – less than half the amount realized when #Bitcoin first crossed $100K last December, which hit $2.10B. Despite a higher price, profit realization was far more muted. pic.twitter.com/GtZXU23yO9

— glassnode (@glassnode) May 22, 2025

Additionally, coin age data demonstrates that older coins are still mostly inactive. Just 13.4% of active supply is older than six months as of May 2025, down from 24.7% in December 2024. This decline indicates that while newer participants provide short-term momentum, older holders are likely sitting tight.

The bullish outlook is supported by institutional interest. Over $5.3 billion has been invested in spot Bitcoin ETFs in the last month, as per SoSoValue data, and U.S.-listed funds currently oversee over $40 billion in total assets. Meanwhile, corporate accumulation keeps growing.

Last week, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) increased its holdings to 576,230 $BTC by purchasing an additional 7,390 $BTC. The Japanese company Metaplanet has also boosted its holdings to more than 7, 000 $BTC. Over 30,000 $BTC is now being acquired each month by public companies collectively.

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