According to Fairlead Strategies, Bitcoin has been testing the last resistance level at $64,900 at the weekly close since reaching $57,000 last week. The firm is looking for two consecutive weekly closes above this level to confirm the breakout.
“A breakout would be a long-term bullish development that leaves no resistance,” said Fairlead Strategies representative Katie Stockton. Stockton added that the long-term momentum is positive and there are no signs of exhaustion in the long-term upside.
However, Bitcoin's support is at around $48,100, which represents a decline of about 30% from where $BTC was trading on Thursday. Stockton suggested that there is a possibility that Bitcoin could give a sell signal next week. According to CryptoQuant, this support level is slightly higher than Bitcoin's short-term realized price of $42,700, which represents the average cost at which different $BTC holders purchased their Bitcoin.
The short-term realized price acts as a ceiling in bear markets and a floor in bull markets. JPMorgan also suggested last week that Bitcoin could drop to the $42,000 level after April, when Bitcoin-halving-induced enthusiasm fades.
CryptoQuant shows traders' unrealized profit margins are above extreme levels at 52%, a 20% increase from last week. Julio Moreno, head of research at the crypto data provider, explained that this indicator acts as a price correction signal when it rises above 40%.
Moreno cited data showing that Bitcoin is in an “overheated bull” phase, with miners in “overpayment” territory and short-term Bitcoin wallet holders starting to sell to realize higher profit margins, as evidence of the potential for further corrections.
*This is not investment advice.