coindesk.com
Bitcoin BTC$76,564.18 and the broader crypto market have come under pressure, consistent with the recent weakness in U.S. equities and a bounce in the Dollar Index.
The common thread is the U.S. interest rate. Crude oil is higher again, stoking inflation concerns, and markets are pricing in a growing chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month.
That narrative, however, is flawed, according to some observers. If they’re right, the latest bout of market weakness could be short-lived.
WTI crude has rallied to $90, up from $70 at the start of July, driven largely by supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict rather than an overheating U.S. or global economy. Higher energy prices could lift headline inflation in the near term, but they also act like a tax on households and firms.
A rate rise cannot open shipping lanes or put more barrels on the market, but it can tighten credit flow in the economy and add to a slowdown in economic activity.
“Monetary policy should not mechanically react to a jump in headline inflation,” James E. Thorne, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Wellington-Altus, wrote on X. An oil shock, he argued, is “a growth shock dressed up as inflation,” and tightening into it would be “policy error masquerading as prudence.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, made the same point. In a July 28, 2026 interview with CNN, he said: “Monetary policy 101 says when there is a supply shock, don’t respond. Follow the script. It’s worked pretty well … Bottom line: I don’t think they should raise rates.”
That does not mean the Fed will stay on hold on Sept. 16. The odds of a hike are rising, currently at 68%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. It does mean the case an increase is weaker than the tape implies. Until that decision lands on Sept. 16, another leg higher in oil can keep pressure on risk assets, including crypto. Stay alert.
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- U.S. pounds Iran, Tehran strikes back at bases in biggest exchange since July (Reuters): Asian and European stocks fell after renewed U.S. airstrikes pushed oil prices back to levels unseen since July, compounding the economic impact of a global selloff in bonds as disrupted energy supplies fuel inflation worldwide.
- Solana, ether, xrp, lead majors slide as Iran strikes drive a broad risk selloff (CoinDesk): The selling that followed U.S. airstrikes on Iran did not land evenly. Solana and tron each shed more than 3% over the past 24 hours while bitcoin gave up roughly 1%. $XRP dropped nearly 2%.
- $XRP ETFs pull in $170 million over eleven days. Goldman tops institutional holders (CoinDesk): U.S. spot $XRP exchange-traded funds have taken in fresh money for 11 straight trading sessions. The funds pulled in another $14.38 million on Tuesday, lifting cumulative net inflows to about $1.68 billion.
- Bitcoin withstands $90 oil and rising yields while gold slides. A firm dollar is the catch. (CoinDesk): The headwinds hitting bitcoin aren’t landing, even as they inflict damage on traditional assets. That relative strength, however, may still be challenged by a resilient Dollar Index. Futures tied to WTI oil have topped $90 and are up nearly 9% for the week.