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As $XRP retests the key $1 psychological level, market data suggests that the lack of reasonable demand around this area could lead to steeper declines.
$XRP remains under pressure as the broader market downtrend continues. The crypto asset has already fallen 45.4% this year, with its price dropping to $1.0047 and testing the psychological $1 level.
Despite the decline so far, CryptoQuant analyst Pelinay believes $XRP could still fall another 50% from current levels. Such a move could send the crypto asset back to levels last seen before the November 2024 rally.
$XRP Whale Activity Has Changed
Notably, Pelinay’s analysis looks at $XRP’s price action alongside whale activity. According to the analyst, $XRP’s drop toward $1 is bigger than just a loss of an important support level.
The behavior of large holders has also changed, although current whale activity does not appear to be the main reason behind the latest decline.
For context, the Whale-to-Exchange Flow indicator recorded major spikes during sudden price moves in 2025 and early 2026. During those periods, large amounts of $XRP moved to Binance.
When whale transfers to exchanges rise, they can create more selling pressure because they increase the amount of $XRP that large holders could sell. CryptoQuant also considers sudden increases in whale inflows as possible signs of a change in the price trend.
However, the current data is sending a different signal. Notably, Whale-to-Exchange Flow now stands at just 77, below the large spikes seen during earlier periods.
The latest reading also represents a decline of around 38.9%. This suggests that whales are not currently sending large amounts of $XRP to Binance as the price moves toward $1. As a result, Pelinay says it would be wrong to directly attribute $XRP’s current decline to whale selling.
Weak Demand Could Lead to $0.50
Falling whale activity does not necessarily mean buyers have returned. $XRP has continued to make lower levels after reaching a peak of around $3.39 and has now moved toward the $1 region.
At the same time, Whale-to-Exchange Flow has steadily declined. The combination of these two trends suggests that much of the heavy selling from large holders may have already taken place.
The bigger concern may now be the lack of strong new demand. Market data continues to show $XRP struggling around $1, and the cryptocurrency would need strong spot buying to stage a meaningful recovery.
In other words, a decline in whale selling can reduce some selling pressure, but it cannot by itself create the demand $XRP needs to reverse the downtrend.
At $XRP’s current price of $1.004, $1.13 acts as an intermediate resistance level. Meanwhile, the $0.52 area marks the Fibonacci 1.272 level. This makes the $1 support important in the near term. If $XRP breaks and stays below $1, the decline could widen and bring the $0.52 region into play.
Importantly, Pelinay noted that she does not expect whale selling to increase for this scenario to play out. Weak demand alone could push $XRP toward the $0.50–$0.52 zone.
If buyers fail to provide enough spot demand around $1, $XRP could continue making lower levels even as whale transfers to exchanges remain low. In this case, another 50% decline remains possible, with the $0.50-$0.52 area becoming the next major downside target.