finbold.com
Crypto prediction markets are signaling that $XRP is likely to remain near current levels by August 1, 2026, with traders assigning the highest probability to the token trading around $1.20.
According to Polymarket data, the largest probability band for August 1 places $XRP at $1.20, with a 43% chance.
The second most likely outcome is $XRP ending below $1, with a 34% probability. Meanwhile, the market assigns a 6% chance to $XRP reaching $1.40 and a 2% chance of climbing to $1.60. Probabilities for prices above $2 remain below 1%.
The data suggests traders expect $XRP to remain within a relatively narrow range over the coming weeks despite ongoing volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market.
A move to $1.20 would represent a gain of roughly 8% from current levels, while the significant probability assigned to a sub-$1 outcome indicates investors remain cautious about $XRP’s near-term outlook.
Recent price action supports the range-bound view. Notably, $XRP has repeatedly found support around $1.10 while struggling to sustain a breakout above the $1.14-$1.15 resistance zone.
Although $XRP has faced broader market pressure in recent months, institutional demand has remained relatively resilient.
In this case, spot $XRP exchange-traded products have continued to attract inflows, with cumulative net flows reaching approximately $1.48 billion by early July.
New wallet creation has also increased, signaling ongoing network activity despite the token’s muted price performance.
The ETF narrative remains a key factor for the Ripple-linked asset. The launch and expansion of $XRP investment products, including the REX-Osprey $XRP ETF, have strengthened institutional access to the cryptocurrency.
$XRP price analysis
By press time, $XRP was trading at $1.11, up nearly 4% over the past 24 hours and 2.75% on the weekly timeframe.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency’s technical picture remains cautious despite expectations for a modest recovery.
The asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) stands at $1.15, indicating $XRP remains below its short-term trend line.
More notably, the 200-day SMA is $1.45, placing the current price more than 23% below its long-term average and confirming that the broader trend remains bearish.
Momentum indicators paint a less negative picture. $XRP’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.63, placing it in neutral territory but close to oversold conditions, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing even as bullish momentum remains limited.