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A record narrowing of Dogecoin's ($DOGE) weekly price range not seen since autumn 2023 has been recorded for the meme coin, coinciding with a drop to 2-year lows. The compression reached its peak exactly four days before the SpaceX IPO scheduled for Friday, June 12.
While retail market participants are closing positions en masse, U.S. spot ETFs and institutional capital have started a coordinated buyout of the dip in anticipation of a price breakout.
The main precursor of a trend change was the extreme narrowing of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly timeframe. The current range between the lower and upper boundaries of the corridor is only 35%, while the upper band sits at $0.111, forming the key resistance zone.
The chart compression coincided with pressure from the broader market downtrend. From June 1 to June 7, the $DOGE price fell by 14%, closing the week at $0.0862. During the sell-off, the coin briefly dropped to $0.07, updating its low since February 2024.
SpaceX IPO makes bull and bear case for $DOGE
The fall in the spot price led to a total unloading of margin positions, as by June 8, open interest (OI) in Dogecoin had fallen to $1.04 billion, marking an almost sixfold drop compared with the peak of $6.01 billion recorded in October 2025. The removal of excessive leverage from the market reduces the risk of cascading liquidations and opens room for a fast return to $0.1.
The current speculative vacuum overlaps with preparations for Friday's SpaceX IPO, which creates two opposite scenarios for investors.
- Bearish scenario: the public debut of the aerospace giant could temporarily pull capital away from risky digital assets. Given that SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet, its shares will become a direct, regulated alternative to crypto exposure for major players.
- "Moon" scenario: long-term investors are focused on Elon Musk's February statement confirming that Dogecoin would be officially used to fund the mission to the Moon. For this reason, SpaceX's success remains a buy signal for $DOGE among the retail sector.
While short-term players gave in to panic, institutional capital started increasing positions. According to SoSoValue, from May 1 to June 8, 2026, cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Dogecoin ETFs rose from $9.63 million to $12.44 million.
This 29.17% spike in inflows, hidden from the wider public, proves that large capital is systematically buying the dip. Smart money is pricing in expectations that the breakout from the Bollinger technical wedge will happen to the upside immediately after SpaceX shares begin trading this Friday, making $0.1 a legitimate target for the nearest move.