coindesk.com
Index provider MSCI has confirmed that it will remove Strategy, the largest publicly listed holder of $BTC, from its widely-tracked global equity indexes, including the MSCI USA Index, after the close on Nov. 30.
It did so under a new screen for “non-operating” companies adopted on Oct. 15, which also led to the exclusion of Tokyo-listed bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet from the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index.
Analysts said the move could hamper Strategy's ability to buy more coins, though much of it may already be priced in.
MSCI’s indexes are baskets of stocks that many funds are mandated to copy. When a stock is excluded, funds tracking that index have to sell their shares, creating selling pressure. The exclusion does not delist the stock from exchanges, however, and it does not force Strategy to sell its bitcoin. Strategy holds 850,364 $BTC ($62.6 billion) as of this writing.
Passive selling
How much selling pressure could hit the MSTR market in the days ahead depends on who is analyzing the situation, with firms like BloFin Research putting it at about 13 million shares.
"MSCI-tracking funds would need to sell an estimated 13M shares, roughly 3.1% of shares outstanding and less than one day's typical trading volume," it said in an X post.
That is consistent with Strategy's analysis. In its response to MSCI’s consultation, Strategy said funds tracking MSCI’s global investable indexes hold about 13 million of its shares, or 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding.
That is less than one day’s trading volume and is worth roughly $1.6 billion at Wednesday’s prices.
JPMorgan, however, estimated in November 2025 that MSCI’s exclusion could trigger about $2.8 billion in outflows. It said the total could rise to $8.8 billion if other index providers followed suit. The bank's forecast, however, was based on an initial MSCI proposal, not the final rules adopted in this review.
Impact on fresh $BTC purchases
This forced selling, and the loss of passive index demand that comes with it, is what analysts think could affect how Strategy pays for new bitcoin.
“The bigger risk is Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation model. Strategy relies heavily on capital raising to fund $BTC purchases. Losing passive index demand could put further pressure on its mNAV premium, already near 1.08x. A shrinking premium makes new equity issuance less accretive, potentially slowing future Bitcoin accumulation,” BloFin Research explained.
To understand that, start with mNAV, a figure that tracks the value the market puts on the company relative to the value of its bitcoin holdings. When it is above 1, investors are paying more for the shares than the company’s bitcoin stash is worth. Below 1 suggests the opposite.
