u.today
$XRP enters the new week of June on a bullish note after closing the previous seven days strictly above the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands. On the weekly chart by TradingView, the Bollinger Bands indicator has compressed into a tight spring, which technically points to a sudden exit from the consolidation phase.
The fact that the token closed the previous seven-day period strictly above the lower boundary of the indicator confirms buyers' ability to hold key support levels. This local reversal activates a bullish scenario in the market "menu" - a natural rebound toward the middle SMA line at $1.3725, and, if the upward impulse holds, even a test of the upper boundary at $1.57.
Why a $1.37 upside is on the menu before July 4
The technical setup is perfectly synchronized with the political timing, as the U.S. administration is demanding a full Senate vote on the CLARITY Act by July 4. What adds intrigue to the current calm is how resiliently the token absorbed the recent market-wide storm, which dragged the price down by 17%.
While the industry was being thrown from side to side, U.S. spot $XRP ETFs showed interest, and from June 1 to June 5, capital flows swung from a negative $5.34 million to a positive $4.13 million. By the end of the week, institutional players had fully bought the dip, pushing the net balance into positive territory at $2.62 million.
Behind the scenes, this visible interest from large capital is being directly linked to the timing of the congressional vote. The White House's demand for a decision on the CLARITY Act by Independence Day, July 4, practically explains the current price behavior.
With high probability, $XRP will continue collecting liquidity and drifting inside a sideways corridor until the resolution comes in early July, and for market participants, this will be an elimination game with a binary outcome.
Approval of the law could trigger a major short squeeze and quickly carry the price toward the calculated technical targets around $1.37. If force majeure hits and the regulatory initiative is rejected, which Polymarket pricing currently assigns a 49% probability in 2026, market-wide pressure and U.S. macroeconomic risks could push $XRP lower, sending it to test the psychological support level at $1.00.