thecryptobasic.com
$XRP is facing one of its most pessimistic sentiment phases in recent years.
Meanwhile, Lucky Luciano, a well-known early Bitcoin adopter, believes this could be exactly what the market needs for a turnaround.
The veteran investor pointed to a familiar pattern in market cycles, noting that extreme bearishness often appears just before a reversal. His view comes as $XRP has dropped roughly 60% from recent highs, with fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) dominating discussions.
Luciano summarized the situation by noting that when the crowd turns overwhelmingly negative, the “bottom is usually close”. Accordingly, he added that patience tends to reward investors willing to wait.
Key Points
- $XRP sentiment hits extreme lows as price drops by 60%, signaling a potential market bottom may be forming.
- Bitcoin OG Lucky Luciano says peak fear and FUD often appear just before major reversals.
- Santiment data shows bearish sentiment near 2-year highs, a pattern that has preceded rebounds.
- MVRV at FTX-era lows suggests $XRP may be in an “opportunity zone” if accumulation begins.
Sentiment Data Signals Possible Reversal
Luciano’s comments were in response to fresh data from Santiment, which highlighted a dramatic shift in $XRP’s social sentiment.
According to the analytics firm, bearish commentary around $XRP is now at its third-highest level in the past two years. Historically, this kind of sentiment imbalance has often preceded price rebounds.
Santiment’s data shows a recurring trend:
- February 2025: Bearish sentiment spiked, followed by a strong rebound
- October 2025: A similar setup led to a temporary bounce
- Current conditions: Bearish sentiment has again surged, with the bullish-to-bearish comment ratio sitting around 1.02 to 1
This pattern reflects a core market principle: prices tend to move against the majority’s expectations when retail sentiment reaches extremes.
$XRP Down Sharply as Retail Confidence Fades
The recent downturn has been significant. $XRP has fallen more than 60% over the past nine months after trading as high as $3.66. This has pushed many retail investors to step away from the market.
This capitulation is exactly what contrarian investors typically watch for. As retail exits positions and sentiment deteriorates, the probability of a relief rally tends to increase.
$XRP MVRV at FTX-Era Lows
Meanwhile, a separate metric further confirms that an opportunity may be emerging for $XRP. As the coin trades at $1.37, it leaves holders with an average 41% loss, according to Santiment.
Moreover, Glassnode data shows that more than half of $XRP’s supply is underwater, with persistent realized losses and only 43.4% of supply in profit. This sustained selling pressure has weighed on $XRP’s recent recovery attempts.
As of April 7, the MVRV ratio has dropped to levels last seen during the FTX collapse. However, historically low MVRV levels suggest $XRP may be entering an “opportunity zone.” Similar conditions in 2022 preceded a 63% rebound, hinting at potential upside if accumulation begins.
Contrarian Setup Builds
With $XRP sentiment now deeply negative and historical data pointing to similar setups preceding rebounds, some analysts are beginning to call for an all-time high run.
While no immediate reversal is guaranteed, the alignment of extreme FUD with past behavioral patterns suggests $XRP may be approaching a key inflection point.