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$XRP has now completed the ABC corrective structure under Wave 4, with the next wave looking to bring a recovery push toward a new all-time high.
The $XRP price has struggled over the past few months, having lost the $3 and $2 psychological levels to trade at $1.38 as of press time. The downturn spilled into this year, with $XRP down 24.81% year-to-date. However, chart data suggests this bearish phase is a natural response to an earlier Wave 3 rally.
Specifically, the downtrend represents an ABC irregular flat wave within a larger Wave 4 correction for $XRP. Further data now confirms that $XRP may have completed this corrective wave, with the forthcoming Wave 5 targeting a rally to $5.85, a new all-time high.
Key Points
- $XRP has struggled in the last few months, having relinquished the important psychological support levels around $3 and $2.
- Chart data confirms that this ongoing downtrend followed a Wave 3 rally that pushed $XRP to $3.4 in January 2025.
- $XRP now appears to be trading within a corrective Wave 4 pattern, which features a smaller ABC irregular flat that has now taken prices to $1.3.
- Further data suggests that the ongoing corrective wave may be close to an end, as $XRP completes the ABC irregular flat.
- What could follow is a recovery from Wave 5, the last phase of the Elliott Wave structure, with $XRP looking to claim $5.85 as an ultimate target.
$XRP Completes Waves 1 to 3
This idea came from Dark Defender, a well-known $XRP market commentator, as $XRP battles to recover some of the losses of the past weeks. Specifically, data from the accompanying chart confirms that the ongoing market turbulence forms part of a broader 5-phase Elliott Wave structure that began as far back as July 2022.
Notably, Wave 1 began as $XRP sought to rebound from the $0.31 low amid the Terra implosion of May 2022. Wave 1 helped $XRP recover some of the losses, rising from $0.31 in July 2022 to a local top of $0.94 by July 2023, marking the end of the wave. It bears mentioning that the pivotal July 2023 ruling in the SEC vs Ripple case contributed mostly to the $0.94 peak.
From here, $XRP slipped into Wave 2, which triggered a pullback from $0.94 to a low of $0.38 by July 2024. Wave 3 began immediately after, bringing relief to the bulls. Interestingly, Wave 3 marked the largest phase, resulting in an $XRP rally from $0.38 in July 2024 to $3.34 by January 2025. This marked a 794% increase within six months.
$XRP Now Within Wave 4
Since the $3.34 peak, $XRP has struggled as the market tries to find a new capital influx for another sustained uptrend. Notably, within this period, $XRP has also witnessed occasional upsurges like the jump to $3.66 in July 2025, but these surges have not been sustainable.
According to the chart, $XRP now trades within Wave 4 amid the ongoing struggles. This corrective Wave 4 resolved into an ABC irregular flat structure that has defined $XRP’s price action since January 2025. Specifically, sub-Wave A aligned with a price drop from the $3.4 high to a $1.61 low in April 2025.
After this, sub-Wave B emerged with a rebound push, taking $XRP to the $3.66 all-time high by July 2025. What followed was a massive dump from sub-Wave C. This sub-Wave C has endured until now, triggering a 62% collapse from the $3.66 peak, as $XRP now trades for $1.38 at press time.
Wave 5 Recovery Could Push Prices to $5
According to Dark Defender, $XRP appears to have completed the ABC sub-structure within the corrective Wave 4. He suggested that Wave 5 may now begin playing out. However, $XRP would need to find a solid bottom and begin a recovery push to slip into Wave 5. This would demand strength from the broader market.
Dark Defender expects the Wave 5 to eventually take $XRP to a peak of $5.85, aligning with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level. Notably, this would represent a 323.9% increase from $XRP’s current price.