XRP Price Stuck in Range as Whale Transfers and Derivatives Outflow Grow  

• $XRP price sustainability above the $1.34 support can bolster buyers to drive a 25% surge to challenge at $1.77
• Since July 2025, a falling channel pattern has been driving a steady downtrend in $XRP price.
• Around 130 million $XRP tokens were redistributed among large holders during this period.

$XRP, the native cryptocurrency of the $XRP Ledger, is down 1.76% during Thursday’s U.S. mark hours to trade at $1.4. The downtick coincided with Bitcoin’s rejection from $74,000 as escalating geopolitical tension raised oil prices across the broader market and raised risk-off sentiment. However, the $XRP price faced additional pressure as large investors distributed a significant amount of token in the last 24-hours.

$XRP Whales Redistribute 130M Tokens as Futures Open Interest Drops 48%

Over the past months, the $XRP price has been fluctuating within a narrow range of $1.51 and $1.34. During this consolidation, the coin price showed several attempts to break beyond this range, but failed immediately, showing lack of initiation from buyers or sellers.

Amid price uncertainty, the derivative trading associated with $XRP’s futures contracts recorded a steady decline since early January 2026. According to Coinglass data, the open interest has plunged $3.77 billion to current value of $2.35 billion, registering a 48% loss.

The initial drop can be attributed to broader market correction amid geopolitical tension, macroeconomic changes, and cascading long-liquidation. However, the ongoing outflow indicates that traders are cautious exiting their position in the leverage market to reduce risk amid market uncertainty. This drop also suggests a lack of speculative force in the market that could bolster price recovery.

Blockchain data monitored by market analyst Ali Martinez reveals some significant whale movement in the $XRP ecosystem during the past day. Approximately 130m $XRP tokens were redistributed by large holders in the last 24hours.

The shift indicates considerable activity of major wallets due to the ongoing trading of the asset during wider fluctuations of the market. Historically, such distribution has coincided with major market tops and or accelerate correction in asset price.

Combiningly, the decline in derivative trading and whale distribution puts pressure on $XRP price, limiting its recovery potential in the short-to-mid term period.

$XRP Price Challenges Key Resistance at $1.56

Since mid-January 2026, the $XRP price has been experiencing dynamic resistance from the 50-day exponential moving average. While this resistance acts as constant resistance, the coin price is supported by a firm support at $1.34.

This consolidation between the two aforementioned levels creates a narrow space that could prepare $XRP for its next breakout. If the coin price reclaims the 20-day EMA slope, the buyers could gain the initial momentum to drive a higher rally. The post-breakout surge could push the asset 26% up to challenge the resistance trendline of falling channel pattern at $1.77.

Since July 2025, the two parallel trendlines act as dynamic resistance and support to drive a sustained down trend. A bullish breakout from the pattern resistance trendline will further strengthen the buyers grip over tis asset.

$XRP/USDT -1d chart

On the contrary, if sellers connected to defend the channel resistance, the $XRP price would prolong the current downtrend.