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A notable financial analyst and market commentator uses the market cap multiplier to show how XRP ETF inflows could push prices to double digits.
As XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gain traction in 2025, finance analyst Zach Rector has recently presented an ambitious prediction, confidently suggesting that XRP could climb to $15 due to massive inflows from these products.
JPMorgan’s $4 to $8B XRP ETF Inflows
Notably, he based his analysis on a market cap multiplier model. Rector’s commentary comes when industry leaders are more confident around the prospect of an XRP ETF, with Ripple CEO predicting at least one product could launch in H2 2025.
Interestingly, the analyst built his argument around projections from JPMorgan. For context, JPMorgan estimated earlier this year that XRP ETFs could witness around $4 billion to $8 billion in inflow within their first year.
Rector opted to be cautious by focusing on the lower $4 billion figure but argued that it could trigger an outsized market cap increase. He used his market cap multiplier model to drive the analysis, which measures how inflows could amplify an asset’s valuation.
XRP’s Market Cap Multiplier
According to Rector, the market cap multiplier is essentially just the change in the crypto asset’s market cap divided by its netflow, whether positive or negative.
Interestingly, this multiplier effect has had an impact on XRP price on several occasions. For instance, Rector pointed to a recent moment on April 12, 2025, when XRP’s market cap soared by $7.74 billion in just eight hours, fueled by a mere $12.87 million in inflows.
Remarkably, this occurrence translated to a massive 601x multiplier. In simple terms, this essentially indicates that XRP’s market cap increased by 601 times, leading to an extra $601 for every $1 that entered into the market.
However, for his analysis, Rector scaled back to a 200x multiplier to stay conservative. Also, he chose to leverage the lower end of JPMorgan’s $4 billion XRP ETF inflow estimate. Now, with a 200x multiplier, a $4 billion inflow would result in XRP’s market cap swelling by $800 billion.
XRP Price with $4B ETF Inflow and 200x Market Cap Multiplier
Meanwhile, XRP’s market cap currently sits at $125 billion at press time, with a price trading around $2.15. If this current market valuation increases by the estimated $800 billion, this leads to a resulting market cap of $925 billion.
Further, Rector considered an XRP circulating supply of 60 billion tokens, 2 billion higher than the current figure of 58 billion XRP. Considering a market cap of $925 billion for XRP and a circulating supply of 60 billion, this brings XRP to a price of $15.
Despite the bullish projection, which expects the XRP price to increase 597% from current levels, Rector admitted that his model had blind spots. Notable, it overlooks futures markets and trading on the XRP Ledger’s decentralized exchange, which could boost inflows further.
Prospects of an XRP ETF Launch
Meanwhile, this projection dovetails with a broader wave of optimism. Over the past few months, nine firms, including Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, WisdomTree, 21Shares, Invesco, Ark Invest, VanEck, and Canary Capital, have filed for spot XRP ETFs with the SEC.
The agency recently acknowledged these applications, and with Ripple’s legal settlement anticipated in 2025, optimism about approval by year-end has risen. Currently, Polymarket odds of approval this year stand at 78%.
Further, the debut of Teucrium Investment Advisors’ 2x leveraged XRP ETF on NYSE Arca this month was a major milestone, though spot ETFs remain in limbo. Globally, Brazil approved a spot XRP ETF in March 2025, setting a precedent for other markets.
Still, there could be challenges. Particularly, Ethereum ETFs’ lackluster inflows, with only $2.28 billion inflows since July 2024, suggest other altcoin ETFs might underwhelm. Regulatory delays could also stall progress. However, if JPMorgan’s inflow estimates materialize, Rector’s $15 target feels within reach.