thecryptobasic.com
The $12 billion asset manager Bitwise has released a detailed report examining XRP as an investment case.
Based on this examination, Bitwise projected the asset’s potential value from 2025 to the end of the decade. In particular, the firm provided bold price predictions for XRP enthusiasts to watch for between now and 2030, offering bear, bull, and max cases.
Notably, to determine a valuation target for XRP, Bitwise applied a formula based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), using a discount factor to adjust for macroeconomic, regulatory, and competitive risks.
XRP Max Case for 2025 to 2030
Under the max case scenario, Bitwise expects XRP to end 2025 at $4.48, progress to $6.53 by 2026, and reach $9.60 by 2027. From 2028, it anticipates XRP will trade in the double-digit range, starting at $13.84. By 2029, Bitwise hopes XRP will reach $20.14 under the max case and $29.32 by 2030.
Notably, this max scenario centers around XRP’s role in tokenization and payments. With the global tokenization market projected to exceed $10.9 trillion by 2030, Bitwise believes that capturing just 1% to 2% of the market could significantly impact XRP’s market cap.
XRP’s fees for transactions related to tokenized assets would generate increased on-ledger flows. Accordingly, transaction fees would burn a fraction of XRP, reducing its supply and potentially driving its price.
The projected annual return for XRP is +46%, with the price potentially reaching $30 by 2030. Furthermore, Bitwise projects XRP’s market capitalization relative to Bitcoin will rise from 11% to 13.81%. Notably, this estimate assumes that Bitcoin reaches $1 million per token.
XRP Bull Case for 2025 to 2030
In Bitwise’s bull case scenario for XRP, the firm assumes steady network growth with minimal regulatory hurdles. It expects XRP to grow moderately, with increased institutional partnerships, cross-border flows, and stablecoin usage on XRPL.
The annual return formula yields +27%, with XRP’s price projected to reach $12.70 by 2030. The formula suggests XRP would peak in 2025 at $3.90, just slightly above its all-time high of $3.84.
However, Bitwise projects that XRP could reach $4.94 by 2026, $6.25 in 2027, and $7.91 by 2028. Under this model, XRP would break into the double-digit range by 2029, reaching $10.02 and continuing to $12.68 by 2030.
XRP Bear Case Projects Massive Dip to $0.13
Bitwise’s bear case expects XRP to bottom at $1.82. At the time of the analysis, XRP was trading at $3.08 and subsequently dipped to $1.70 before recovering. It is currently trading at $2.38.
Meanwhile, Bitwise expects XRP to dip to $1.07 by next year and possibly lose the $1 level in subsequent years. In particular, it proposed a low of $0.13 for XRP by 2030.
This bear case scenario focuses on XRP’s reliance on institutional adoption, particularly within the banking sector. In this scenario, XRP fails to capture a significant share of the payments and tokenization markets.
Here, institutional adoption lags, and tokenization prospects on the XRPL are minimal, with stablecoins and other activities being overshadowed by competitors.
In this scenario, the annual return formula results in a negative growth of 59% per year. This is based on a historical volatility of ~147%, and the scenario anticipates a significant decline in value due to XRP’s failure to make meaningful progress in its target markets.