October has meanwhile become the costliest month in the complex's short life. Net outflows for the month have climbed to $99.62 million; June, the only other month in the red, shed roughly $787,000. Total net assets stand at $1.54 billion, down from $1.96 billion on September 25. Cumulative net inflows fell by only about $93 million over the same stretch, a gap that points to the declining Solana price, not investor exits, as the main driver of the shrinkage. Mechanically, a net redemption day means authorized participants pulled more shares than they created, moving Solana ($SOL) off the funds' books and into the open market. Wednesday and Tuesday's daily disclosures will show whether this week closes as the worst on record.
The $100 Neckline and November's Record
The selling lands on a market already bruised. The token is down 13.8% for October so far, headed for an eighth losing month of 2026, and off another 3.7% across the past seven days. During Tuesday's session it changed hands near $101.87, less than $2 above the $100 line that chart watchers treat as the decisive support. At the time of writing, $SOL holds $102.62, up 2.8% on the 24-hour clock.
The structure behind the flows is a potential head-and-shoulders pattern flagged on October 21, when $SOL traded near $106. The neckline sits close to $100, and closing a day under it would confirm the pattern and set an $80 target in motion. MCO Global Research sets hourly support at $98.86 to $100.47 with the swing low at $98.62; per the firm, a fresh low would strengthen the bearish case, while a push above $109.20 would cancel the count. Traders can follow the setup through our updated Solana technical analysis.
History cuts both ways. Long-run price data gives November a median gain of 15.3% back to 2020, yet last November the token dropped 28.3% even as the brand-new funds pulled in $419.38 million, still their largest month ever. That precedent shows ETF demand alone did not defend the price a year ago. With the complex now shrinking instead of growing, whether demand from spot trading across crypto exchanges absorbs the redemptions may decide the pattern's fate. Supply adds its own weight: a large holder recently moved 482,228 Solana ($SOL), roughly $49 million, in a documented three-day sell-off, thickening trading volume at the lows. Adoption metrics run the other way, with Solana tokenized stock holders at a record 1.5 million, and on-chain flow offers no rescue bid yet: analysis after the recent slot cut found external buy rates flat at 53% against 52%.
Support Scored at $99.13
Our composite support scoring rates $99.13 as the strongest floor on the board, 100 out of 100, a level where the lower Bollinger Band meets the 100- and 200-day moving averages; the nearest resistance, $104.50, scores 90 out of 100. Positioning stays tilted long, with the long/short account ratio at 3.36 and perp funding mildly positive at 0.0071%. Read against the flows, a netted outflow of about $19 million in a day is absorbable while spot holds above $99.13; a daily close beneath it would hand the head-and-shoulders count its confirmation, and a rejection at $104.50 would cap any relief rally. What the Tuesday balance hides is its composition: the issuer-level split between creations and redemptions behind the $19.16 million net figure is not disclosed.
Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.