Heidi Crebo-Rediker: US reliance on China for strategic minerals poses national security risks, China’s state support creates competitive advantages, and innovative technologies could reshape rare earth production | Odd Lots

Key Takeaways

• The US faces significant vulnerabilities due to its reliance on China for strategic minerals.
• China’s dominance in the rare earths market is a result of strategic planning and state support.
• US efforts to compete with China in critical minerals are hampered by scale and cost challenges.
• Environmental concerns and cost factors have led to US dependency on Chinese rare earths.
• Innovative material design approaches can reduce reliance on rare earths in technology.
• Waste is increasingly viewed as a valuable resource for mining rare earth elements.
• New technologies in micro-targeting rare earth elements are disruptive and revolutionary.
• The US has potential for rare earth production but faces significant challenges.
• State-owned enterprises in China have competitive advantages due to lack of profitability pressures.
• The US once had a strong mining industry but now faces trade-offs and consequences.
• A shift in technology around critical minerals could mirror the impact of the shale revolution.
• The potential for a significant technological shift in critical minerals is on the horizon.

Guest intro

Heidi Crebo-Rediker is a Senior Fellow in the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, specializing in economic security and US competitiveness. She previously served as the State Department’s first Chief Economist, where she advised two Secretaries of State on integrating economics with geopolitics, and has spent nearly two decades in investment banking across Europe managing sovereign debt and emerging markets financing. Her research at CFR on critical minerals strategy and US competitiveness in rare earth production directly informs her analysis of how the US can build an industrial ecosystem to compete with China’s dominance in this sector.

The vulnerability of US reliance on China for strategic minerals

• The US is vulnerable to China’s dominance in strategic minerals, which could lead to significant problems if access were cut off.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• We know that China dominates, which in theory if China were to completely shut off access, you know, not just military, high-tech, etcetera, all kinds of problems.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• Understanding the geopolitical implications of US reliance on China for strategic minerals is crucial.
• This reliance highlights a critical vulnerability in US supply chains and national security.
• The US faces significant risks if access to Chinese strategic minerals is restricted.
• The potential impact on military and high-tech sectors is particularly concerning.
• The US must consider alternative strategies to mitigate this vulnerability.
• Diversifying supply chains could reduce US dependence on Chinese minerals.

China’s strategic dominance in the rare earths market

• China has strategically dominated the rare earths market through a comprehensive ecosystem and state support.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• They decided they wanted to dominate and they really did a very smart job of creating an entire ecosystem.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• China’s strategic initiatives and investments in rare earths have reshaped global supply chains.
• The comprehensive ecosystem includes domestic extraction, processing, and product development.
• China’s state companies operate without profitability pressures, offering a competitive edge.

• They also have state companies that don’t have to be profitable, and that’s pretty key.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• This structural advantage allows China to maintain dominance in the rare earths market.
• Understanding China’s strategy is essential for global competition in critical minerals.

Challenges for the US in competing with China

• The US cannot outmine, outprocess, or outspend China in critical minerals at scale and cost-effectively.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• Competing with China in critical minerals presents significant challenges for the US
• Understanding the competitive landscape is crucial for US strategy in this sector.
• The US faces limitations in scale and cost when competing with China.
• China’s state support and strategic planning give it a significant advantage.
• The US must explore alternative strategies to enhance competitiveness.
• Collaboration and innovation could help the US overcome these challenges.
• The US needs to assess its capabilities and develop a comprehensive strategy.

The potential for US rare earth production

• The US has the potential to produce rare earths but faces significant challenges.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• We do actually have rare earths in the United States and we were a mining powerhouse many years ago.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• The US has historical capability in rare earth production but faces current challenges.
• Environmental concerns and cost factors have led to US dependency on Chinese rare earths.

• We were more than happy for the Chinese to take on those set of problems.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• Understanding the historical context is crucial for addressing current challenges.
• The US must balance environmental concerns with the need for resource independence.
• Developing a sustainable strategy for rare earth production is essential.

Innovations in material design and resource extraction

• Material design approaches can significantly reduce the reliance on rare earths in technology.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• There’s a material design approach that drastically reduces how much rare earths you need in magnets.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• Innovations in material science offer solutions to critical supply chain issues.
• Companies like Niron Magnetics are scaling up innovative technologies in the US
• Waste is increasingly viewed as a valuable resource for mining rare earth elements.

• We shouldn’t consider waste to be a liability; it’s literally America’s next mine.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• Reframing waste as a resource highlights a potential solution to resource scarcity.
• These innovations could significantly impact the future of technology manufacturing.

Revolutionary technologies in rare earth extraction

• The technology for micro-targeting rare earth elements is revolutionary and disruptive.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• This particular company is commercializing the technology; it’s a protein that can micro-target specific rare earth elements.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• Understanding the significance of this technology is crucial for the mining sector.
• The new technology has transformative potential for resource extraction.
• The US could benefit from adopting such innovative technologies.
• This approach could enhance efficiency and reduce environmental impact.
• The potential for a technological shift in critical minerals is on the horizon.
• These advancements could mirror the impact of past technological revolutions.

The potential for a technological shift in critical minerals

• We are on the cusp of a significant shift in the technology around critical minerals and rare earths.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• I think we could really use a big switch flip to suddenly have abundance.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• This shift could have a transformative impact on the critical minerals sector.
• Drawing parallels to the shale revolution suggests potential future transformations.
• The US must prepare for and embrace these technological advancements.
• Understanding past technological revolutions can inform future strategies.
• The potential for abundance in critical minerals could reshape industries.
• Stakeholders must appreciate the significance of these technological shifts.

The role of state-owned enterprises in China’s dominance

• China’s state companies can operate without the pressure of profitability.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• That’s pretty key if you’re competing around the globe to actually mine and process.

  — Heidi Crebo-Rediker

• State-owned enterprises in China have structural advantages in the rare earths market.
• These companies can prioritize strategic goals over profitability.
• This approach allows China to maintain a competitive edge globally.
• Understanding the role of state-owned enterprises is crucial for global competition.
• The US must consider the implications of this advantage in its strategy.
• Collaborative efforts could help level the playing field in the global market.