u.today
Cryptocurrency asset manager 21Shares has come up with a base-case price target of $2.45 for 2026.
Research analyst Matt Mena argued that the combination of regulatory clarity and the aggressive uptake of U.S. spot ETFs is creating a "supply shock" for the controversial altcoin.
"$XRP stands at a defining turning point: a decisive shift from speculative volatility to a valuation anchored in institutional fundamentals," Mena wrote.
Base, bull, and bear
21Shares outlined three potential scenarios for $XRP’s performance in 2026. According to the fresh report released by the ETF issuer, the performance of the token will depend on such factors as ETF flows, real-world asset (RWA) adoption, and macroeconomic conditions:
The base case assumes regulatory stability continues to support steady ETF inflows and incremental utility upgrades.
The bull case is $2.69. In this scenario, institutional RWA scaling accelerates and "supply exhaustion" triggers a structural repricing.
If adoption stagnates and capital rotates elsewhere, $XRP could plunge back to 1.6%.
Growing scarcity
According to 21Shares, $XRP exchange reserves have fallen to a seven-year low of 1.7 billion $XRP.
This scarcity is colliding with the launch of U.S. $XRP spot ETFs, which amassed over $1.3 billion in assets under management in their first month alone
"Institutional ETF demand is colliding with a community that refuses to sell," the report states. "This intersection of scale and scarcity is the primary engine for a non-linear repricing throughout 2026."
Echoes of "DeFi summer"
The report suggests $XRP is mirroring Ethereum’s trajectory from 2017–2018, where "abstract promise gave way to proven utility."
21Shares argues $XRP is building its own "flywheel" through the rapid growth of its stablecoin, RLUSD.
The stablecoin has surged 1,800% in market cap to nearly $1.4 billion.