coindesk.com
When Celestia airdropped its $TIA token to 580,000 users in 2023 it was the plat du jour among traders and investors, with the project saying the release aligned with a new "modular era."
However, despite rallying to a dizzying $20 price point in September, 2024, it has since slumped to less than $1.65 in a desperate plight spurred by a series of massive cliffs in the token's vesting schedule.
Data from Tokenomist shows that core contributors and early backers, notably a slew of venture capitalists, could sell tokens purchased for relatively cheap in early fundraising rounds onto the open market.
This coincided with $TIA's precipitous move to the downside, although it's worth noting that the token's market cap, currently at $1.2 billion, actually increased by 50% despite the token losing 90% of its value due to the sheer scale of supply increase.
Other examples
$TIA’s price collapse mirrors similar drawdowns across newer tokens. Blast’s 10.5 billion token unlock in June, over half of its supply, sent prices tumbling to all-time lows as investors struggled to absorb the sudden flood of liquidity.
Berachain also suffered heavy losses after its airdrop and early vesting cliffs triggered a long squeeze, cutting its token nearly in half from launch highs. Meanwhile, Omni Network’s token dropped over 50% within a day of its debut as early recipients rushed to sell.
These cases underscore how aggressive vesting schedules and poor post-launch liquidity continue to weigh on token performance, even among the most hyped projects.
What’s next for $TIA: a squeeze or slow unwind?
With Celestia’s $TIA token down over 90% from its highs, investors are now watching whether the asset is bottoming, or unraveling. Following an October 2024 cliff unlock that released 176 million tokens (nearly doubling circulating supply), $TIA has entered a phase of steady linear emissions. Roughly 409 million more tokens are scheduled to vest through early 2027, adding continuous pressure on price.
Some traders see a setup for a short squeeze. According to Stix’s head of trading Taran Sabharwal, a significant portion of unlocked tokens were sold over-the-counter, with buyers hedging via perpetuals. This has led to elevated open interest and negative funding, a dynamic that, if reversed, could force shorts to cover. “Funding is deeply negative,” Sabharwal said. “If that resets, you could see a pop.”
But barring a squeeze, fundamentals remain weak. Monthly vesting continues, liquidity is thin, and new demand for $TIA is limited. Without a fresh catalyst, such as growth in Celestia’s modular ecosystem, $TIA risks further downside as each unlock adds to sell pressure in an already oversupplied market.