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Cardano has been trading in a tight range this week, but a breakout could follow soon. With the SEC’s big ETF decision set for tomorrow, traders are hopeful that this could spark a bullish move for $ADA.
The odds of an $ADA ETF approval have surged to 71% on Tuesday on Polymarket, the highest since April 20. This comes ahead of a key May 29 deadline for the SEC to decide on Grayscale’s proposed Cardano ETF.
🇺🇸 Grayscale's Cardano $ADA ETF deadline for decision is this week.
— Cardanians (CRDN) (@Cardanians_io) May 26, 2025
The SEC must approve, deny, or delay it by this Thursday, May 29.
Do you think it'll get approval this week? pic.twitter.com/84o9lyLksJ
The SEC has up to 240 days to review Grayscale’s spot $ADA ETF filing, with the final deadline set for October 22. According to the official acknowledgement on February 24, it can delay its decision multiple times. So, a delay could be more likely instead of rejection or approval.
$ADA Holds Steady, ETF Optimism Peaks at 71%
In mid-April, the chances of approval before the end of 2025 were only 37% on Polymarket. But the odds now over 70% show that traders are optimistic even after the SEC delayed $XRP ETFs recently.
Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg, says there’s a 75% chance the ETF will launch this year. He also thinks the SEC might approve several crypto ETFs as soon as this summer.
$XRP, Solana ($SOL), and Dogecoin ($DOGE) are also in the ETF spotlight, with multiple spot filings in play. Polymarket shows strong odds for approvals before 2025 – 84% for $XRP, 83% for $SOL, and 67% for $DOGE.
Cardano’s Ecosystem Trails
A key hurdle Cardano is facing is its ecosystem underperformance. The network currently supports only 48 DeFi apps, holds $443 million in total value locked, and has only $31 million in stablecoins. However, newer chains like Unichain and Sonic are outpacing Cardano by a wide margin.
Technicals Signal Bullish Setup for $ADA
Cardano’s technicals are bullish as the weekly chart is flashing bullish signals. It continues to trade above the 100-week moving average, a key long-term support level. If the momentum holds, it could retest last year’s high of $1.207. If it breaks out above that level, then $2 may be next. It is currently trading at $0.7524.
RSI is neutral at 51, but MACD and momentum indicators are slightly bearish, which shows short-term weakness. But long-term trends 30-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs remain bullish with strong long-term support.
The decision tomorrow could be a major catalyst for $ADA’s next move. An approval from the SEC could open the door to institutional money and send $ADA soaring past $0.84, kicking off a fresh rally.