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JPMorgan analysts estimate that a spot-based XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) could attract between $3 billion and $8 billion in inflows, drawing comparisons to the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs introduced last year.
Bitcoin ETFs currently account for about 8% of Bitcoin’s market cap of $1.81 trillion, while Ethereum ETFs have a smaller share, around 3%.
ETP assets ($108bn) make up 6% of the total Bitcoin market cap ($1,874bn) after the ETPs’ first year of trading; likewise, ether ETP assets ($12bn) have a 3% penetration rate of the total Ethereum market cap ($395bn) within its first… pic.twitter.com/7rApA2z71h
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) January 13, 2025
Ripple and Industry Players Eye XRP ETF Approval
Ripple’s Monica Long has expressed confidence that XRP could follow Bitcoin and Ethereum as the next cryptocurrency to secure an ETF product. Several firms, including Bitwise and WisdomTree, are already preparing proposals to launch XRP ETFs in the U.S., with anticipation building for potential regulatory approval in 2025.
Nate Geraci, a prominent ETF analyst, believes an XRP spot ETF could gain approval this year. Polymarket users currently assign a 59% probability of approval by 2025, with a 50% chance of a decision coming before July 31. Meanwhile, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has reiterated his optimism about the inevitability of an XRP ETF.
Regulatory Shifts May Accelerate Progress
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has faced criticism for its approach to cryptocurrency regulation, particularly in the case against Ripple. With SEC Chair Gary Gensler set to step down in a week and a pro-crypto administration expected to take charge, industry insiders anticipate a shift in regulatory attitudes. However, the SEC may approve ETFs tied to tokens like Litecoin (LTC) before turning its attention to XRP and Solana (SOL).
As 2025 approaches, expectations are high for an expansion in cryptocurrency ETF offerings, with XRP positioned as a key contender to join the growing list of approved products.