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Crypto exchange Backpack has announced the launch of US election prediction tokens– ‘TRUMPWINS’ and ‘HARRISWINS’. With these prediction tokens, traders will be able to bet on the results of the US election. Developed by Wintermute, TRUMPWINS represents Donald Trump’s victory, and HARRISWINS represents Kamala Harris’ victory.
The price value of the token will fluctuate based on market sentiment and the likelihood of each candidate winning.
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? 🇺🇸
Predict the result by trading the outcome tokens developed by @wintermute_t, $TRUMPWIN and $HARRISWIN.
Now listed on Backpack Exchange 🎒 pic.twitter.com/AweKCKoKU4
— Backpack 🎒 (@Backpack) September 30, 2024
According to the official statement, “Before the election is settled, TRUMPWINS and HARRISWINS tokens will trade for less than 1 USDC. This is because the market price of the tokens is based on the probability of each candidate winning:
If the market believes Trump has a 60% chance of winning, TRUMPWINS tokens may trade around $0.60 USDC
If the market believes Harris has a 40% chance of winning, HARRISWINS tokens may trade around $0.40 USDC.”
Depending on who wins, the token will be redeemable for $1 USDC per token. In case neither Trump nor Harris wins, both tokens can be redeemed for $0.5 USDC per token.
The project uses OutcomeMarket which is the latest smart contract from the market maker, Wintermute. With OutcomeMarket, users can speculate on real world events by minting outcome-based tokens like TRUMPWINS and HARRISWINS.
The settlements will be determined by a decentralized oracle called Edge Proofs developed by Chaos Labs. Apart from this, the contract is currently deployed on Ethereum, Arbitrum and Base. Prediction market bets have hogged a lot of spotlight this elections season. With every minor Presidential development, bettors are tracking the election sentiments and predictions alike. Recently, Trump Surged 1% and Harris dips 0.7% on Polymarket Odds, after Harris recently outlined her position on crypto and Trump stated that he won’t run for 2028 Presidential race, if he loses this one.