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According to the 99 Year Golden Eagle Model, which solely considers XRP’s utility as a medium of exchange, the fair market value of XRP extends to five digits.
XRP has lagged relative to the broader crypto market since it dropped from the $3.31 all-time high in January 2018. However, some market watchers attribute this underperformance to the SEC lawsuit, which ran from December 2020 to August this year.
Other price suppression theories have also emerged. Consequently, industry commentators believe the current XRP market price is far below its fair market value. As a result, last year, Valhil Capital execs pooled multiple valuation models to determine this fair market value.
The 99 Year Golden Eagle Model
A model developed by a business professional from India, known as the 99 Year Golden Eagle Model, projects XRP’s fair market value at an astonishing $13,386. This model approaches the valuation of XRP with a century-long perspective.
Unlike other models that incorporate XRP’s use as a store of value, the 99 Year Golden Eagle Model strictly focuses on XRP’s role as a medium of exchange. The model assumes that XRP will exclusively have utility in transactions and will not serve as an asset for speculative investments or long-term storage.
It builds on the Quantity Theory of Money. Notably, with this, the model highlights XRP’s fast and efficient transaction speed on the XRP Ledger, processing at a rate of 1,500 transactions per second (TPS).
XRP Supply Probabilities
The model also features a probabilistic scenario calculation, weighing potential outcomes based on various circulating supply levels.
The scenarios cover possibilities such as the total supply of 100 billion, liquid supply of 83 billion, and future liquid supply of 36.9 billion XRP. It also considers the possibility of the removal of much of XRP’s supply for other purposes, such as long-term holds.
The model also assumes that XRP will face competition from other networks, capturing only 54% of the market over the 100-year period. Its projections suggest that XRP’s transactional value will rise gradually, with significant gains occurring in the later stages of adoption.
By 2030, the model predicts XRP’s utility-driven market share will handle $28.5 trillion in global trade annually, with the value exchanged via transactions on the ledger expected to reach $83.2 quadrillion.
It assumes a circulating supply of 85 billion XRP, and a steady transaction velocity of 1.18, based on XRP’s ability to process multiple transactions. As a result, the projected value for XRP by 2121 stands at $13,386.
Limitations
Despite this optimistic outlook, the model has its limitations. It doesn’t account for price impacts due to speculative interest, nor does it consider potential new use cases that might arise over the course of the century.
The model takes a conservative stance by focusing solely on XRP’s transaction utility, meaning the true price could be even higher if such factors are considered.