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GSR’s ETF possibility score reveals that XRP has a low chance of being approved due to centralization concerns and low demand, which impacts its potential for ETF approval.
GSR’s latest ETF possibility score, posted by Wu Blockchain on X, reveals notable challenges for XRP (Ripple) in gaining ETF approval. The score considers two key factors: decentralization and demand. These criteria are increasingly critical, as regulatory bodies like the SEC emphasize the importance of sufficient decentralization for crypto classifications.
GSR released the ETF possibility score. According to Decentralization and Demand Scores, the rankings are ETH SOL NEAR AVAX APT ADA XRP ATOM. If the SOL ETF passes, the market value could increase by 1.4 times in a bear market and 8.9 times in a bull market. Read more… pic.twitter.com/YVIg4iAPwG
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 28, 2024
Decentralization and Demand Scores
XRP shows a disparity in its decentralization and demand scores, resulting in an overall negative outlook. For decentralization, XRP scores -0.9, reflecting centralization concerns. Ripple Labs holds a significant portion of the XRP supply, contributing to these concerns. Cryptos typically value decentralized control, and this centralization is viewed negatively.
On the demand side, XRP scores -0.2, indicating modest demand that doesn’t outweigh its decentralization issues. Consequently, XRP’s total score of -0.44 places it low in the ranking, suggesting minimal chances of being included in an ETF based on these criteria.
Comparative Analysis of Other Cryptocurrencies
In contrast, other cryptocurrencies exhibit varying potential for ETF inclusion. Ethereum (ETH) leads with a total score of 1.13, indicating strong decentralization and higher demand. Solana (SOL) follows with a score of 0.58, reflecting a good balance between decentralization and demand. NEAR Protocol (NEAR) stands neutral with a score of 0.00, balancing slight decentralization weakness with moderate demand.
Avalanche (AVAX) and Aptos (APT) show negative total scores of -0.18 and -0.27, respectively, highlighting moderate decentralization but low demand. Cardano (ADA) scores -0.35, struggling with similar issues of low demand and decentralization. Cosmos (ATOM) scores the lowest at -0.47, indicating challenges in both aspects.
XRP’s Position and Ripple’s Perspective
This analysis comes a day after Ripple President Monica Long argued for the launch of a spot XRP ETF in the U.S. market. Long highlighted that XRP is among the most prominent crypto assets, trading in the top 10 for most of its existence and currently ranking as the seventh most valuable crypto.
Additionally, Long noted that XRP is one of the most heavily traded assets, available on over 100 crypto exchanges, including major U.S. platforms. The July 2023 court ruling clarified that XRP itself is not a security, providing a clear regulatory status shared only with Bitcoin in the U.S.
Ripple’s CEO also expressed strong confidence that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for XRP, Solana, and Cardano are inevitable. During a recent interview, the CEO mentioned that the potential for an XRP ETF launch could become a reality as early as next year, in 2025.