VanEck Analyst: Bitcoin Isn’t Reliant on Bond Yields Over the Long Run

• VanEck’s Matthew Sigel says Bitcoin has little long-term correlation with bond yields, while its relationship with the U.S. dollar remains more persistent.
• Sigel attributes Bitcoin’s recent pullback more to DXY strength than movements in Treasury yields.
• He points to lower realized volatility and growing institutional adoption as reasons the current drawdown looks more contained than previous Bitcoin cycles.
  

  ---

Bitcoin is facing renewed macro scrutiny after retreating from recent highs, but VanEck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel argues that bond yields are not the main force determining Bitcoin’s long-term direction. Speaking to CNBC, Sigel pointed instead to the U.S. Dollar Index as a more consistent macro factor.

Sigel said Bitcoin has “virtually no correlation with bond yields” while maintaining a persistent negative correlation with the DXY. From this perspective, recent dollar strength provides a more useful explanation for Bitcoin’s weakness than changes in Treasury yields. VanEck has also previously linked periods of Bitcoin strength to a softer dollar.

Bitcoin Correlation With Bond Yields

Sigel also connected Bitcoin’s summer advance to seller exhaustion, arguing that sustained selling pressure had already worked through the market. Bitcoin’s recovery from roughly $58,000 to $86,000 occurred despite restrictive monetary conditions and the failure of the Clarity Act to advance, according to his remarks.

That price behavior supports a broader view that Bitcoin is developing market drivers beyond traditional interest-rate expectations. Spot demand, institutional participation and changes in available supply can increasingly influence price independently of day-to-day movements in fixed-income markets.

VanEck’s research throughout 2026 has highlighted this evolving market structure. Its June analysis, for example, noted substantial US spot Bitcoin ETP outflows while onchain indicators showed holders realizing losses and miners adjusting to tighter economics.

Lower Volatility Changes The Drawdown

Sigel identified the 50-week moving average near $78,000 as an important level for Bitcoin heading into the weekly close. He also argued that the current decline should be viewed through the lens of Bitcoin’s significantly lower volatility.

According to Sigel, Bitcoin’s realized volatility has fallen about 50% over four years. That means a percentage-based drawdown that once looked severe can now represent a more ordinary fluctuation for the asset. VanEck’s July research similarly recorded realized volatility well below its long-run average.

For crypto investors, the distinction matters because Bitcoin’s market structure is changing as institutional exposure expands through regulated investment products and broader financial infrastructure. VanEck’s research has repeatedly tracked this transition alongside changes in liquidity, derivatives positioning and onchain activity.