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Historical data surrounding how Bitcoin reacted before and after the Coinbase IPO suggests the S&P 500 could pull back after the SpaceX IPO.
As investors look ahead to the SpaceX IPO, market analyst Ali Martinez has called attention to Bitcoin’s performance around the Coinbase public listing in 2021 as a hint to what could happen next in the stock market.
According to Martinez, the strong gains recorded by the S&P 500 over the past year could be followed by a period of cooling off after SpaceX goes public. If this happens, some of the money leaving stocks could find its way into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Ali Martinez Compares SpaceX IPO to Coinbase Listing
In a recent market commentary, Martinez compared the upcoming SpaceX IPO with the Coinbase IPO, which took place on April 14, 2021.
He noted that Bitcoin enjoyed a massive rally before Coinbase entered the public market. Specifically, between March 2020 and April 2021, BTC climbed more than 1,200% and reached a high of about $64,000.
However, the rally did not continue for long after the listing. Within weeks, Bitcoin lost around 50% of its value and dropped to roughly $30,000 by May 2021.
Martinez believes a similar pattern could play out in the stock market following the SpaceX debut. He pointed out that the S&P 500 has already recorded impressive gains ahead of the offering.
Specifically, the index has risen from a low of 4,802 in April 2025 to its current level of 7,406, representing a 54% increase over the past year.
Considering this, Martinez argued that much of the excitement surrounding the SpaceX IPO may already be reflected in stock prices. He suggested that a period of consolidation and profit-taking across major equity markets would be normal and healthy.
Can a Stock Market Decline Benefit Bitcoin?
Notably, a drop in stock prices does not automatically lead to higher Bitcoin prices. In many cases, both stocks and cryptocurrencies behave as risk assets and move in the same direction. During periods of market uncertainty, their correlation can become stronger.
However, there are situations where Bitcoin could perform better than stocks during an equity market pullback. One possible reason is portfolio reallocation. When stock prices fall, some investors choose to move part of their funds into alternative assets instead of keeping everything in cash or bonds.
This can strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal. If investors see falling stock prices as a sign of broader economic weakness or concerns about declining trust in traditional financial systems, they may increase their exposure to Bitcoin as a diversification tool or long-term store of value.
Bitcoin does not always move in lockstep with traditional markets. Studies have shown that its correlation with stocks changes over time and often remains relatively low outside periods of major market stress. There have been times when Bitcoin remained stable or moved higher while stock markets weakened.
The SpaceX IPO
Martinez’s latest commentary comes as SpaceX prepares for what most consider the largest IPO ever. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, after finalizing its offering price on June 11.
The company plans to sell around 555.6 million Class A shares at $135 each, aiming to raise about $75 billion. Net proceeds could reach roughly $74.4 billion before any overallotment option. If completed as planned, the deal would easily surpass Saudi Aramco’s previous IPO record of about $29 billion.
At the IPO price, SpaceX would carry a valuation of around $1.75 trillion to $1.77 trillion, making it one of the world’s most valuable publicly traded companies from day one. Some reports have even suggested the company had ambitions to exceed a $2 trillion valuation.
Notably, a group of 21 banks led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley is managing the offering. Investor demand has been exceptionally strong throughout the roadshow process.