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Bitcoin Isn’t Regressing. Where Will the Crypto Market Go in February?

Alexander KUPTSIKEVICH, Financial Analyst of FxPro

Over the past 7 days, BTC has been adding 3% and is trading at the levels of $ 9,600. The greed and fear index is now at the “Greed” mark, showing approximately the same values ​​during the week and accurately reflecting what is happening on the market. The relative strength index RSI on the daily chart stopped the decline from the overbought zone. This movement again confirms the positive fundamentals of the market, because even after the bear slide, we did not see a massive drawdown.

28-01-2020 17:00:24  |   Regulation
Noteworthy news came a couple of days ago from Whale Alert about the Bitcoin transaction with an equivalent of almost $500 mln committed between unknown wallets. Such a transfer also indicates the existence of deep market currents that can form the basis for future dynamics.

At the weekend, Bitcoin showed minimally positive fluctuations, while altcoins quite confidently moved into growth. The dominance index has now dipped to 64.2%, almost reaching the levels of December 2017 — the time when the altcoin season began, which marked the beginning of a decrease in the BTC index up to 33%.

Thus, now we really see signs of a return of the altcoins season, no matter how ridiculous the statement may have been in the recent past. The speculative interest can indeed create an upward momentum for crypto, but only the emergence of fundamental reasons for growth can provide this sector with really reliable reasons for a rebound.

I don’t want to sound too optimistic, however, Glassnodes research shows another important bullish signal for the entire crypto sector as a whole. It is about the growth of the user base of Bitcoin. Obviously, systematizing such large-scale data set with great conditionalities in the calculation is a huge job.

The analysis of the company takes into account those balances that are now at zero, although earlier they had funds. It was not surprising to see that in the historical perspective, the growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate is associated with the growth of the user base. In particular, the historical rally of 2017 coincided with the influx of new users. The same statement holds true for the 2019 rally. At the moment, company analysts are also recording an increase in the number of active user bases, which, together with all other indicators, may show positive directions.

Nevertheless, it is worthwhile to be wary of market directions at a time when the entire crypto community begins to predict a new historical rally, especially at times of total enthusiasm. There is always a chance that it will happen, but you need to understand that it can break off at the most unpredictable moment. The market is now ruled by institutional investors, the overwhelming majority of whom have not entered Bitcoin from the $20,000 mark, like the majority of new retail investors. Therefore, you should focus on the moment of general euphoria and the return of an unshakable faith in the market directions as an impulse for a sale.

Изображение: Coincodex

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