Coinbase CEO: Quantum Computing Poses Larger Risk to Crypto Than AI

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong thinks quantum computing is a bigger long-term threat to crypto security than AI. He’s warning the industry to get ready before the technology becomes powerful enough to break today’s cryptography.

During Coinbase’s Q3 earnings call on October 29, Armstrong said he isn’t worried about AI cracking the encryption that protects Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on its own. However, he warned that quantum computing poses a far greater threat, stating that it is only a matter of time before quantum machines reach that level.

Why Quantum Computing Could Threaten Bitcoin

Bitcoin uses cryptographic signatures to confirm that transactions were approved by whoever holds the relevant private keys.

The danger with a sufficiently powerful quantum computer is that it could run a specialized mathematical shortcut (Shor’s algorithm) to figure out the secret private key from its corresponding exposed public key, potentially allowing a hacker to steal crypto.

Armstrong contrasted that risk with what AI can do today.

He pointed out that researchers have been trying to crack elliptic-curve cryptography for decades, without the kind of breakthrough needed to break it at scale.

Still, today’s quantum computers can’t break Bitcoin’s cryptography this way. The worry is that future advances might make such attacks feasible, and that upgrading blockchain networks and moving funds might take years.

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Coinbase Is Preparing for a Post-Quantum Future

Coinbase has already started upgrading its custody systems and is urging Bitcoin developers to plan a move to quantum-resistant cryptography.

On October 13, Coinbase put out a technical proposal laying out priorities for making Bitcoin quantum-ready.

The exchange pointed to flexible signature designs, phased migration options, compatibility with institutional custody systems, and the complex issue of what to do with dormant or inaccessible coins.

Coinbase stressed that the crypto industry must start building these defenses now, before powerful quantum computers actually arrive.

Armstrong’s warning comes as international agencies urge action on quantum risks.

On October 7, Europol called on crypto firms and businesses to start planning their switch to quantum-proof security systems, noting that getting decentralized networks to coordinate massive security updates will be no easy task.

Additionally, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released a guide on October 27 detailing how companies and institutions should phase out outdated, vulnerable encryption methods and adopt new quantum-proof security standards.

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Related: What Is Quantum Computing? A Beginner’s Guide to the Technology That Could Reshape Crypto