Bitcoin's Path to Halving — Anticipated Increase in Difficulty Sets Stage

Based on current metrics, the Bitcoin blockchain is set to undergo another difficulty adjustment before the halving, with an anticipated increase of 1.2% to 2.16% around April 11, 2024. Following this adjustment, there will be 1,344 blocks remaining until the reward is halved.

Estimated Increase in Difficulty Precedes Halving

In April, bitcoin ($BTC) miners face two significant events: the upcoming difficulty adjustment and the subsequent halving. During the last adjustment on March 28, at block height 836,640, the difficulty decreased by a modest 0.98%. However, this reduction may be erased in the next adjustment, which is projected to increase by anywhere from 1.2% to 2.16%.

The upcoming difficulty adjustment is anticipated to happen at block height 838,656, providing miners with 1,344 blocks to mine until block 840,000. During this period, between the adjustment and the halving, miners are poised to generate around 8,393.75 newly minted bitcoins through their mining efforts. As of the latest update, bitcoin miners are currently generating approximately 604 exahash per second (EH/s) of SHA256 hashrate.

The hashprice, representing the anticipated value of 1 petahash per second (PH/s) per day, stands at roughly $104. This figure is lower than the peak seen in mid-March when the hashprice soared to $120 per PH/s per day on March 13. Since the beginning of April, miners have accumulated a total of $263 million, with $7 million of that sum attributed to collected $BTC transaction fees.

Over the past seven days, the hashrate average stood at 600 EH/s, with Foundry USA commanding a significant portion at 170.67 EH/s. Among the 1,017 blocks mined during this period, Foundry discovered 289, while Antpool discovered 227.

Antpool’s seven-day simple moving average (SMA) hashrate hovered around 134.06 EH/s, representing 22.32% of the total hashrate. The bulk of the remaining blocks were found by F2pool, Viabtc, Binance Pool and 50 other pools.

What do you think about the estimated difficulty change prior to the halving? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.