Bitcoin Braces for Record Difficulty Surge Ahead of Retarget as Miners Push Network to New Heights

Scheduled for Feb. 15, 2024, the upcoming Bitcoin difficulty retarget is poised to mark a notable upswing in the network. Current projections forecast an estimated difficulty surge ranging from 8.45% to 9.2%, setting the record for the steepest increase of 2024 thus far.

Bitcoin Difficulty Poised for a Steep Increase

This week, bitcoin (BTC) mining is expected to become significantly more challenging, with projections indicating potentially the largest difficulty hike witnessed this year. To date, 2024 has seen three difficulty epochs, comprising one decrease and two increases. The previous uptick, recorded at block height 828,576 on Feb. 2, 2024, marked a 7.33% increase.

Forecasts now suggest the forthcoming rise could range from 8.45% to 9.2%, potentially eclipsing the prior adjustment. The network’s difficulty adjustment mechanism aims to maintain block production times close to an average of ten minutes per block. This adjustment occurs every 2,016 blocks, based on the time required to mine the preceding epoch. Should the 2,016 blocks be mined in under two weeks, an increase is usually on the cards.

Conversely, if mining the epoch exceeds two weeks, indicating block times have stretched beyond the ten-minute norm, a decrease in difficulty is expected. Presently, at block height 830,287, block intervals are averaging between eight minutes and 45 seconds to nine minutes and seven seconds for each block discovered. The seven-day simple moving average (SMA) for Bitcoin’s hashrate is smoothly maintaining a pace of 597 exahash per second (EH/s). Throughout the recent mining of 2,016 blocks, the average hashrate recorded for this period stood at 586.3 EH/s.

With 9,715 blocks remaining until the anticipated fourth reward halving, scheduled on or around April 19, 2024, miners have been ramping up the network’s computational strength and difficulty to unprecedented levels every few weeks. Last week, the hashrate hit an all-time high, and the network difficulty has reached its peak, currently standing at an unparalleled 75.50 trillion. Should the minimum anticipated increase take effect, the difficulty is on track to break past the 80 trillion mark.

What do you think about the upcoming difficulty retarget? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.