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Tuesday, Nov. 3 is election day in the U.S. While this election won't have as direct an effect on the crypto industry as the 2024 presidential election did, what the industry's relationship with Washington, D.C. looks like over the next two years will be defined by who's sworn into Congress in January.
To preview the election, join CoinDesk and Justin Slaughter, Ron Hammond and Jessica Martinez on a Twitter space tomorrow at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. We'll answer your questions and talk through the potential outcomes for the election.
On Tuesday, CoinDesk will cover election results as they roll in through our live blog, complete with analysis from experts on what they mean for the industry (want to weigh in? Email me at nik@coindesk.com).
You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.
Midterms '26
The narrative
The crypto industry won't be as shaped by the 2026 midterm election as it was in 2024. A new presidential administration won't take office and the heads of key regulatory agencies won't change. That doesn't mean crypto will be totally unaffected by the election results though.
Why it matters
Some questions for the industry:
- What will Congress look like in 2027 and 2028? Will Democrats flip the House of Representatives and/or the Senate?
- Will Congress pass any legislation and if so, what bills? Will crypto companies be hauled up before Congress to testify about their engagement with President Donald Trump's administration?
- Will the regulatory agencies — the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Treasury Department and its subgroups, the Fed, so on and so forth — be able to finalize rules in the first half of the year?
- How will the crypto industry respond to a new Congress?
Breaking it down
There are a number of different potential outcomes. The most likely outcome as of Friday afternoon seems to be that the House of Representatives will flip. The Senate is another matter entirely; everybody I've asked has said it could go either way.
For posterity: Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan tracker, is projecting that Democrats will likely win the House. The Senate is more of a tossup.
Prediction market traders on Kalshi are projecting that Democrats will control the House and the Senate. Traders on Polymarket are projecting similar results for both the House and the Senate. And polls similarly seem to be projecting a good night for Democrats (they will need at least four more seats to win the Senate). For a list of the key races CoinDesk is tracking, click here.
From a regulatory perspective, it's also clear that there is now a limited window for agencies to finalize rulemaking. Any rule that gets finalized is likely to be challenged in court, opening up the risk that Administrative Procedures Act litigation can delay a rule's implementation. And Congress could undo any final rulemaking completed too close to the next election through the Congressional Review Act, if the U.S.'s next president and Congress aren't as friendly to the industry as the current administration. So the industry will be watching for agencies to finalize and implement rules as early as possible.
What is clear, and has been for months, is that crypto is not a priority for voters. As CoinDesk reported in May, a survey of 1,000 registered voters in the U.S. showed that just 1% of respondents see crypto as a top issue. The cost of living, jobs, the economy, Social Security and Medicare were much bigger issues. The economy has continued to struggle since that survey was taken.
The perhaps unfortunate wrinkle for the crypto industry is that in recent weeks, some Democrats have begun mentioning crypto on the campaign trail — but chiefly in the context of promising to tackle what they see as corruption within the administration. CoinDesk was unable to find any instance of crypto being mentioned in a positive connotation on the campaign trail.
